Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Ludogorets Razgrad to win, 65% confidence. The gap between the sides is 9 points after 6 matches, and the visitors have not lost a game this season while Spartak Varna have lost 3 of their last 5 league fixtures.

Spartak Varna are 8th in the table with 7 points from 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Their recent form offers little comfort: they have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, including a 0:6 defeat to Levski Sofia on 22 August and a 0:1 home loss to Septemvri Sofia on 17 August. They scored 6 goals and conceded 10 across those five games, with no draws at all. The pattern is one of collapse rather than resilience.

By contrast, Ludogorets Razgrad sit 2nd with 16 points from 5 wins and 1 draw from 6 matches. They have not lost a single game this season. Their last 5 results show 3 wins and 2 draws, with 10 goals scored and 6 conceded. They drew 1:1 at home against Slavia Sofia on 22 August but followed that with a 2:0 victory over Botev Plovdiv on 15 August and a 3:2 away win at Cherno More Varna on 9 August. They are closing in on the title.

The head-to-head record has been entirely one-sided. In 6 meetings over recent years, Spartak Varna have 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats. Even when Spartak hosted, they could only manage 1 draw in October 2025. Ludogorets have won 4 of the last 6 all competitions, including a cup match in April 2023.

The model expects Spartak Varna to score 0.8 goals and Ludogorets 1.8. The most likely scorelines are 0:1 at 13%, 0:2 at 12% and 1:1 at 10%. A draw carries 22% probability while both teams scoring sits at 46%. Spartak score 44% of their goals after the 76th minute but have conceded 32% of their goals in the same period, suggesting they are vulnerable late on. Ludogorets have scored 20% of their goals in the final quarter while conceding only 8% in the 61-75 minute window.

A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Spartak can keep the game tight and exploit their late-game scoring tendency, the 1:1 scenario becomes plausible. The model also flags 49% probability for 3 or more goals, which would require Spartak to find a second chance after going behind. A red card for either side would alter the dynamic entirely, particularly with Vasco Oliveira and Rwan Philipe both carrying red cards from their 22 August matches.