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Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Ligue 1 Stade Francis-Le Blé Brest Miss Match page
Stade Brestois 29 Toulouse

Prediction for

Win: Stade Brestois 29

40%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

36% 1
28% X
36% 2

Average bookmaker line (44)

2.64 1
3.33 X
2.66 2

Odds range

2.38 — 2.77

for outcome 1

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 28 Aug, 11:59

Brest 2.63, because they started the season with more composure and Toulouse's opening defeat exposed defensive vulnerabilities that Brest can exploit at home.

Brest drew 2:2 with Le Mans in their Ligue 1 opener, showing they can compete even when results don't go their way. Their five pre-season matches produced 9 goals scored and 10 conceded across 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. They scored 24% of their goals in the first 15 minutes and another 17% in the final quarter. Toulouse lost 0:2 to Lyon at home, their only competitive game so far, and their last five matches show 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded.

The market sees no clear favourite, offering 2.63 for both teams and 3.36 for a draw. Odds have not moved since opening. The implied probabilities show 36% for each team to win and 28% for a draw.

Brest are expected to score 1.5 goals and Toulouse 1.4, with a 25% chance of a draw and 59% that both teams find the net. The most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 12%, followed by 2:1 at 9%. If Toulouse score first and play for a draw, the home side's advantage diminishes considerably.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 28 Aug, 11:59
  • Стад Брестуа 29 — 6. place, 1 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
  • Тулуза — 15. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
  • Стад Брестуа 29, last 5 games: 1 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses
  • Тулуза, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
  • Head-to-head: 8 games, Стад Брестуа 29 — 4, 2 draws, Тулуза — 2

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Stade Brestois 29 DDWLL 1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Toulouse LDLDW 1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses

Head to head 8

4Stade Brestois 29 2Draw 2Toulouse
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

44 bookmakers counted
2.64 Average bookmaker line
2.38 — 2.77 Odds range

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+