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Tapatío vs Tlaxcala: match prediction on 21 September 2026

Liga de Expansión MX Estadio Akron Zapopan Hit Match page
Tapatío Tlaxcala

Prediction for

Win: Tapatío

59%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

47% 1
26% X
27% 2

Average bookmaker line (45)

1.91 1
3.49 X
3.38 2

Odds range

1.84 — 2.00

for outcome 1

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 19 Sep, 00:04

Tapatío claimed victory over Tlaxcala in the Liga de Expansión MX. Tapatío have won six of nine historical meetings. The result keeps the hosts in 10th place with 11 points from eight matches, while Tlaxcala remains in 14th with 8 points. Bookmakers priced the home win at 1.91.

Tapatío has scored 26% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, while Tlaxcala allows 32% of their goals in that same period. Tapatío’s recent form showed inconsistency with two losses in their last five outings, whereas Tlaxcala had won two of their last five games. Tapatío pressed higher, averaging 11.1 shots per match compared to Tlaxcala’s 8.7, and created more big chances at a rate of 1.88 to 1.63. Possession was relatively even at 48% for the hosts versus 45% for the visitors. The defensive record showed Tapatío conceding 33 goals across their season so far, while Tlaxcala had conceded 25, suggesting a tighter defence for the visitors that was ultimately breached. Ismael Govea Solórzano and Daniel Álvarez López were among the top scorers for Tlaxcala this season, but neither could prevent the defeat. For Tapatío, the win adds to their record of six victories in nine historical meetings against these opponents.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 19 Sep, 00:04
  • Тапатио — 10. place, 11 points after 8 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
  • Тласкала — 14. place, 8 points after 8 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses)
  • Тапатио, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
  • Тласкала, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 9 games, Тапатио — 6, 2 draws, Тласкала — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Tapatío DLLWW 2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Tlaxcala WDWLW 3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss

Head to head 15

9Tapatío 4Draw 2Tlaxcala
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

45 bookmakers counted
1.91 Average bookmaker line
1.84 — 2.00 Odds range

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+