Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
Read more
Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II: match prediction on 14 September 2026
Tartu Welco
Nõmme Kalju II
Prediction for
Win: Tartu Welco
76%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
76%
1
13%
X
11%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 17:13- Тарту Велько — 1. place, 56 points after 28 games (17 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses)
- Нымме Калю II — 10. place, 22 points after 28 games (6 wins, 4 draws, 18 losses)
- Тарту Велько, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Нымме Калю II, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Тарту Велько — 6, Нымме Калю II — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Tartu Welco
WWLDD
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Nõmme Kalju II
LLWLL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 7
6Tartu Welco
0Draw
1Nõmme Kalju II
- 23 AugNõmme Kalju II — Tartu Welco2:4
- 28 MayTartu Welco — Nõmme Kalju II4:2
- 11 AprNõmme Kalju II — Tartu Welco1:5
- 23 Oct 2025Tartu Welco — Nõmme Kalju II5:2
- 19 Jul 2025Nõmme Kalju II — Tartu Welco0:3
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 17:13A 34-point gap separates the sides. Confidence 65%. The conclusion stops holding if Kalju II scores early and drags the game out, or if Welco's vulnerability in the final quarter of an hour materialises on the day.
Welco have taken 8 points from their last five matches — two wins, two draws, one defeat. They beat Kalju II 4:2 away on 23 August and drew 0:0 at FCI Levadia II on 10 September. The home side lost 1:3 to Viimsi on 29 August but have otherwise been hard to beat. Kalju II have taken just 3 points from five — one win, four losses. They won 2:0 at FC Tallinn on 29 August but lost 1:5 at home to Flora II on 10 September and 0:1 away at Elva on 6 September. The visitors have conceded 13 goals in that span.
Head-to-head
Welco have won five of the last six meetings. The only defeat came 0:1 on 19 June 2025. The most recent encounter ended 2:4 at Kalju II's ground on 23 August 2026. The draw probability sits at 13 per cent; both teams to score is 67 per cent.
Welco are top of the Esiliiga A with 56 points from 28 matches. Kalju II are 10th on 22 points, a gap of 34. The home side have won 17, drawn 5, lost 6. The visitors have won 6, drawn 4, lost 18. Welco score 35 per cent of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute; Kalju II concede 25 per cent of theirs in the same period. The visitors score 36 per cent of their goals between the 16th and 30th minute.
The most likely scorelines are 3:1, 2:1, and 3:0, each around 8 per cent. Over three goals is 81 per cent. A win for Welco is the baseline outcome. If Kalju II open the scoring and run the clock down, the visitors have a path to a point. If Welco's late-game vulnerability — they concede 18 per cent of their goals after the 75th minute — is exposed, the result shifts.