Throttur Reykjavik vs Ægir Þorlákshöfn: match prediction on 28 August 2026

Throttur Reykjavik are heavy favourites to beat Ægir Þorlákshöfn at odds of 1.10, a price that reflects a gulf between the two sides in the 1. Deild. Throttur sit third with 37 points after 20 matches, while Ægir languish in 12th place with just 8 points. The bookmakers have priced the home victory at 1.100, implying an 82% chance of success, and my confidence in this outcome sits at 65%. The disparity in the table is stark; Throttur have won 11 games compared to Ægir’s two.

Throttur’s recent results show inconsistency rather than dominance. They have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches, taking seven points from a possible 15. Their last outing ended in a 3-0 defeat away at HK Kópavogur, but they bounced back with a 3-1 home win over Fylkir. Ægir, meanwhile, are in freefall. They have lost all five of their last games, scoring three goals and conceding 19. Their most recent match saw them beaten 7-0 at home by Afturelding.

The history between these clubs reinforces the current hierarchy. In three meetings over the last few years, Throttur have won twice and drawn once, never losing to Ægir. The most recent encounter on 21 June 2026 saw Throttur win 3-1 away at Ægir’s ground. Before that, a 2-2 draw occurred in July 2023, but Throttur’s record at their own stadium is strong, having won 3-1 in May 2023. Ægir have not secured a victory in this fixture for years.

The statistical model expects Throttur to score 3.5 goals while Ægir are projected to manage just 0.9. The probability of a draw is only 10%, and there is an 81% chance of three or more goals in the game. Throttur tend to score heavily late on, with 32% of their goals coming after the 76th minute, while Ægir have conceded 19% of their goals in the final quarter of matches. The model’s top predictions are 3-0 and 3-1, both favouring the hosts.

This conclusion relies on Throttur maintaining their intensity against a side that has lost five straight. The prediction stops working if Ægir manage to exploit Throttur’s defensive vulnerability in the second half. Throttur have conceded 50% of their goals after the 76th minute, suggesting they can fade physically. If Ægir score first and sit deep, they might hold on for a draw or a narrow loss, breaking the 65% confidence level.