Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Torino vs AS Roma: match prediction on 14 September 2026
Torino
AS Roma
Prediction for
Win: AS Roma
39%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
32%
1
28%
X
39%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 17:33- Торино — 13. place, 3 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Рома — 1. place, 9 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Торино, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Рома, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Торино — 2, 2 draws, Рома — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Torino
LLLWL
1 win · 4 losses
AS Roma
WWWDW
4 wins · 1 draw
Head to head 13
3Torino
2Draw
8AS Roma
- 18 JanTorino — AS Roma0:2
- 13 JanAS Roma — Torino2:3
- 14 Sep 2025AS Roma — Torino0:1
- 25 May 2025Torino — AS Roma0:2
- 31 Oct 2024AS Roma — Torino1:0
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 17:33A draw looks the most likely result. The model gives the draw a 28% chance and the expected goals are almost identical — Torino 1.1, AS Roma 1.2. Roma are unbeaten and top of the table, but their xG does not suggest they should be scoring at the rate they have been. Torino have lost two of three league games but beat Fiorentina 2:1 away on 5 September, showing they can take points when they need them.
The model's 1.2 expected goals for Roma suggests they will not find the net as often as their results imply. Roma sit first with 9 points from 3 matches, a perfect record of 3 wins and no defeats. Their last 5 competitive fixtures show 3 wins and 2 draws, with 13 goals scored and only 4 conceded. Torino are 13th with just 3 points from 3 games — 1 win and 2 losses. Their last 5 matches brought 2 wins and 3 defeats, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6. The gap between table position and underlying numbers is where this match could be decided.
Head-to-head meetings do not help Torino. In the last 6 encounters Roma have won 4 times, with 2 draws and no wins for the hosts. Torino's only victory in that span came in the Coppa Italia on 13 January 2026, a 3:2 win in Rome. League meetings have gone Roma's way almost without exception.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 13%, followed by 0:1 to Roma at 12% and 1:0 to Torino at 11%. Both teams to score sits at 46%, and there is a 40% chance of 3 or more goals in the match. Torino score 35% of their goals in the 76-90 minute period, while Roma concede 29% of their goals in the same window. That late-game vulnerability could matter if the match stays level through the final quarter hour.
A draw stops being the prediction if Roma impose themselves early. They have conceded 24% of their goals between 46 and 60 minutes, and Torino have scored 12% of theirs in that same period. If the visitors open the scoring before half-time, Roma's tendency to manage games rather than extend leads could work against them. Models miss the dressing room; a tactical shift or early red card would shift the balance entirely.