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Prediction for Bulacan Kuyas — San Juan Knights
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TSV Hartberg vs Ried: match prediction on 30 August 2026
TSV Hartberg
Ried
Prediction for
Win: TSV Hartberg
45%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
45%
1
28%
X
27%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:08- ТСВ Хартберг — 11. place, 3 points after 4 games (1 wins, 3 losses)
- Рид — 8. place, 4 points after 4 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses)
- ТСВ Хартберг, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Рид, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, ТСВ Хартберг — 5, Рид — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
TSV Hartberg
LLWWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Ried
LLWLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 15
6TSV Hartberg
5Draw
4Ried
- 22 Nov 2025TSV Hartberg — Ried2:0
- 14 Sep 2025Ried — TSV Hartberg0:2
- 27 May 2023TSV Hartberg — Ried2:0
- 8 Apr 2023Ried — TSV Hartberg1:3
- 12 Feb 2023Ried — TSV Hartberg0:1
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:08TSV Hartberg to win. Hartberg haven't lost to Ried in six meetings and the model tips them with expected goals at 1.3 to 1.0. This changes if Ried exploit the 16-30 minute window where Hartberg concede 6% of their goals but Ried score 20%.
Hartberg sit 11th with 3 points from 4 matches, having won once and lost three times. Their recent form shows two victories and three defeats across five games, with 6 points and a goal difference of 5:7. The last outing was a 2:1 away win against SCR Altach on 22 August, but before that came two consecutive home defeats — 0:2 to Austria Wien and 0:2 to Sturm Graz — followed by a 0:1 loss away at RB Salzburg. They opened the season with a 3:1 cup victory over Imst.
Ried occupy 8th place with 4 points from 4 matches, recording one win, one draw and two defeats. Over five games they have accumulated 7 points with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their most recent result was a 1:0 home win against Grazer AK on 21 August. Prior to that came a heavy 1:4 away defeat to LASK Linz, a 1:2 home loss to Rapid Wien, and a 1:1 draw away at Austria Lustenau. They also beat Dornbirn 5:1 in the cup on 24 July.
The head-to-head record is entirely one-sided. Hartberg have won all six meetings listed. The most recent encounter was a 2:0 home win on 22 November 2025. Ried have never won against Hartberg in this period.
The model expects Hartberg to score 1.3 goals and Ried to score 1.0. The draw probability sits at 28%, both teams to score at 45%, and three or more goals at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 14%, followed by 1:1 at 13% and 0:0 at 10%. Hartberg's scoring is concentrated in the 46-60 and 76-90 minute periods, each accounting for 30% of their goals, while Ried's distribution is more spread across the first half with 30% in the 31-45 minute segment.
Hartberg concede heavily in the 46-60 and 76-90 minute periods, each representing 29% of their goals against. Ried's defensive vulnerability is most pronounced in the 46-60 minute window at 27%, with 23% conceded in the 16-30 minute period.