U. De Deportes Women vs Alianza Lima Women: match prediction on 30 August 2026

U. De Deportes Women are the clear favourites to beat Alianza Lima Women on Sunday, backed by their seven-point lead at the top of the table and a model that puts their victory probability at 77%. The hosts have not lost a game all season, while the visitors carry a heavier burden having dropped points in two of their ten matches. U. De Deportes Women's attack has been ruthless, scoring 23 goals in their last five games compared to Alianza Lima Women's 22, but the hosts have also been far more clinical in front of goal, allowing just one goal in that same span while Alianza Lima have kept five clean sheets in a row.

Table Position

The hosts have won nine of their ten games, drawing once, while the visitors have won six, drawn twice and lost twice.

Recent Form

Alianza Lima Women enter this match on a perfect run of five consecutive victories, including a 10-0 thrashing of Defensores Women on 2 August and a 6-0 victory over Carlos Mannucci Women on 23 August. Their defensive record is solid—22 goals scored and none conceded across those five matches. U. De Deportes Women have also been dominant, winning four and drawing one in their last five, with a 12-0 win over Carlos Mannucci Women on 22 July standing out as their most emphatic result. The hosts average 56% possession and 4 shots on target per game in their last three matches, while Alianza Lima Women average 68% possession but only 2 shots on target.

Head-to-Head

The history between these sides favours U. De Deportes Women, who have won two of three meetings while Alianza Lima Women have claimed one victory. The most recent encounter on 4 July 2026 ended 3-0 to the hosts, with the earlier meeting on 27 June 2026 seeing Alianza Lima Women edge it 1-0 at home. The third match, played on 17 May 2026, saw U. De Deportes Women win 3-1 away from home.

Model Expectations

The statistical model expects U. De Deportes Women to score 2.7 goals while Alianza Lima Women are projected to find the net just 0.8 times. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, followed by 3-0 at 10% and 2-1 at 9%. The draw probability sits at a low 14%, while there is a 50% chance both teams score and a 67% likelihood of three or more goals in total. A draw would suit the visitors given how they run the clock down, and that remains the main threat to the prediction.