Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Vitoria vs Gremio: match prediction on 8 September 2026
Vitoria
Gremio
Prediction for
Win: Vitoria
40%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
43%
1
29%
X
28%
2
Average bookmaker line (42)
2.17
1
3.26
X
3.38
2
Odds range
2.00 — 2.25
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 6 Sep, 00:02- Витория — 13. place, 29 points after 25 games (8 wins, 5 draws, 12 losses)
- Гремио — 15. place, 28 points after 24 games (7 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses)
- Витория, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Гремио, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, Витория — 0, 2 draws, Гремио — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Vitoria
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Gremio
LDWWL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 7
0Vitoria
2Draw
5Gremio
- 19 MarGremio — Vitoria2:0
- 28 Sep 2025Gremio — Vitoria3:1
- 27 Apr 2025Vitoria — Gremio1:1
- 4 Dec 2024Vitoria — Gremio1:1
- 21 Jul 2024Gremio — Vitoria2:0
Bookmaker market
42
bookmakers counted
2.17
Average bookmaker line
2.00 — 2.25
Odds range
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 6 Sep, 00:02The bookmakers hold the draw at 3.26, expecting a tight contest between two sides fighting to escape the relegation zone. The bookmakers have not moved from their opening prices — 2.10 for the hosts, 3.26 for a draw, 3.47 for the visitors — and that stillness suggests they expect a tight contest between two sides fighting to escape the relegation zone.
Desperation at home
Vitoria's last five matches have produced one win and four defeats, with just two goals scored and seven conceded. They ended a barren spell with a 1:0 victory over Botafogo on 16 August, but since then they have lost to Vasco DA Gama at home, fallen to Atletico-MG away, and suffered another defeat to the same opposition in the Cup. Their defensive record has been particularly poor: they have conceded 25% of their goals between the 31st and 45th minute and 27% after the 76th minute. They leak goals early and late.
Gremio finding their feet
The visitors have been more effective recently. Two wins, a draw and two defeats across their last five matches have yielded seven points and six goals scored. They beat Internacional 3:1 at home in the Cup and followed it with a 3:1 victory over Chapecoense in the league. Their away form has been mixed — they lost 0:1 to RB Bragantino and 0:3 to Atletico-MG on consecutive trips — but they have shown they can score when given the opportunity. Gremio have conceded 20% of their goals in the 16-30 minute window and 20% between 46-60 minutes.
Gremio's away record
The head-to-head tells a clear story. Gremio have not lost in six meetings — four wins and two draws — and they won 2:0 at home in March 2025 after drawing 1:1 with Vitoria in April 2024.
Relegation battle
Vitoria sit 14th with 29 points from 25 matches, while Gremio are 15th with 28 points from 24. The gap between them is one point and one match played. Vitória have one more game under their belt, so they cannot afford to drop points at home.
What the model sees
The model expects Vitoria to score 1.2 goals and Gremio 1.0, with a 29% probability of a draw and 43% that both teams find the net. The most likely scorelines are 1:0 (14%), 1:1 (13%) and 0:0 (12%). A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. The stalemate remains the most probable outcome.