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Football predictions: upcoming matches

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

59%

9228 / 15583

9228hit
6355missed
1483Pending
15583checked predictions

Checked forecasts

Liga MX Miss
Toluca Santos Laguna

Prediction for Toluca — Santos Laguna

Win: Toluca

74%probability
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Liga MX Miss
Pachuca Club Tijuana

Prediction for Pachuca — Club Tijuana

Win: Pachuca

53%probability
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Liga Pro Miss
LDU Quito Universidad Católica

Prediction for LDU Quito — Universidad Católica

Win: LDU Quito

51%probability
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Primera Division Miss
Firpo Atletico Balboa

Prediction for Firpo — Atletico Balboa

Slight edge: Firpo

47%probability
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Liga Femenina Miss
Millonarios Women Santa Fe Women

Prediction for Millonarios Women — Santa Fe Women

Win: Millonarios Women

50%probability
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Liga Nacional Hit
CD Olimpia Atletico Independiente

Prediction for CD Olimpia — Atletico Independiente

Slight edge: CD Olimpia

47%probability
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NWSL Women Miss
Bay FC Racing Louisville Women

Prediction for Bay FC — Racing Louisville Women

Slight edge: Bay FC

41%probability
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Liga de Expansión MX Hit
Tapatío Tlaxcala

Prediction for Tapatío — Tlaxcala

Win: Tapatío

59%probability
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Major League Soccer Miss
Inter Miami San Diego

Prediction for Inter Miami — San Diego

Win: Inter Miami

56%probability
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Primera División - Apertura Miss
Liverpool Montevideo Racing Club de Montevideo

Prediction for Liverpool Montevideo — Racing Club de Montevideo

Slight edge: Liverpool Montevideo

45%probability
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Primera División Hit
LD Alajuelense Inter San Carlos

Prediction for LD Alajuelense — Inter San Carlos

Win: LD Alajuelense

81%probability
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Liga MX Femenil Miss
Atlético San Luis Women Pachuca Women

Prediction for Atlético San Luis Women — Pachuca Women

Win: Pachuca Women

60%probability
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Liga Nacional Miss
Suchitepéquez Xelajú

Prediction for Suchitepéquez — Xelajú

Slight edge: Xelajú

47%probability
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Liga Profesional Argentina Miss
Belgrano Cordoba Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Prediction for Belgrano Cordoba — Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Win: Belgrano Cordoba

69%probability
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Liga Premier Serie A Hit
Real Apodaca Guerreros

Prediction for Real Apodaca — Guerreros

Win: Real Apodaca

61%probability
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Liga MX Femenil Miss
América Women Atlas Women

Prediction for América Women — Atlas Women

Win: América Women

90%probability
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Division Profesional - Clausura Hit
Sportivo Luqueño Recoleta FC

Prediction for Sportivo Luqueño — Recoleta FC

Win: Sportivo Luqueño

85%probability
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Serie A Hit
Flamengo RB Bragantino

Prediction for Flamengo — RB Bragantino

Win: Flamengo

58%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.