San Martín San Juan

Match report

San Martín de San Juan edged past Millonarios 3-2 in the twenty-eighth round of the Primera Nacional on Saturday evening. The result keeps the home side in ninth place with thirty-eight points, while the visitors drop further from fifth, now sitting on forty-one. We had backed the hosts to win, and the match played out much as we expected—tough, with moments that decided everything.

S. Gonzalez gave San Martín the lead at the twelfth minute, and for a while the home side looked comfortable. Millonarios responded after the break, with M. Flores pulling one back at fifty-two minutes. By then the game had opened up. Both managers made changes at the hour mark, trying to find an edge.

M. Roseti restored the advantage at seventy-seven, but Millonarios refused to go quietly. L. Ferreyra converted a penalty at eighty-six to level things up. The home side had been the more attacking team all evening—hundred and twenty-four attacks against ninety-two—but Millonarios had more shots on target, seven to three. They kept knocking on the door.

And here's the thing about cup football, or league football when it feels like cup football: you only need a few moments to change everything. D. Alvarez struck at ninety-plus-one to win it for San Martín. The visitors had a man sent off at ninety-six, which at least confirmed the game was ending badly for them. They had the better shooting numbers but couldn't cross the line until it mattered.

The statistics tell a story of dominance without control. San Martín had fifty-five percent possession and twice as many attacks, yet Millonarios registered more shots on target and earned a corner advantage eight to four. The home side were clinical when they needed to be. The visitors had the deeper squad on paper, but this was a match decided in fragments, not in sustained pressure.

Prepared from match data

Key numbers

Possession, % 55.00 – 45

Shots on target 3 – 7

Shots off target 8 – 3

Attacks 124 – 92

⚽ 12' S. Gonzalez — Goal ⇄ 32' F. Murillo — Substitution ⇄ 46' T. Muia — Substitution ⇄ 46' M. Penepil — Substitution ⚽ 52' M. Flores — Goal ⇄ 60' L. Recalde — Substitution ⇄ 68' G. Acosta — Substitution ⚽ 77' M. Roseti — Goal ⇄ 78' F. Coronel — Substitution ⇄ 78' H. Zuliani — Substitution ⇄ 78' S. Gonzalez — Substitution ⇄ 81' D. Bulacio — Substitution ⇄ 81' M. Flores — Substitution 🟨 84' P. Castorani — Yellow card ⚽ 86' L. Ferreyra — Penalty ⚽ 90+1' D. Alvarez — Goal 🟨 90+3' J. Camano — Yellow card 🟥 90+6' Red card

Match events

12' 1:0 San Martín San Juan Goal S. Gonzalez assist: F. Murillo
32' 1:0 San Martín San Juan Substitution F. Murillo off: R. Rumbolo
46' 1:0 Midland Substitution T. Muia off: I. Andrada
46' 1:0 Midland Substitution M. Penepil off: J. Perales
52' 1:1 Midland Goal M. Flores
60' 1:1 Midland Substitution L. Recalde off: M. Olavarria
68' 1:1 San Martín San Juan Substitution G. Acosta off: N. Iachetti
77' 1:2 Midland Goal M. Roseti
78' 1:2 San Martín San Juan Substitution F. Coronel off: R. Nieva
78' 1:2 San Martín San Juan Substitution H. Zuliani off: D. Alvarez
78' 1:2 San Martín San Juan Substitution S. Gonzalez off: L. Ferreyra
81' 1:2 Midland Substitution D. Bulacio off: R. Cao
81' 1:2 Midland Substitution M. Flores off: R. Luna
84' 1:2 Midland Yellow card P. Castorani
86' 2:2 San Martín San Juan Penalty L. Ferreyra
90+1' 3:2 San Martín San Juan Goal D. Alvarez
90+3' 3:2 Midland Yellow card J. Camano
90+6' 3:2 Midland Red card

Statistics

55.00 Possession, % 45

3 Shots on target 7

8 Shots off target 3

124 Attacks 92

4 Corners 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

5 Goal kicks 9

Match prediction: San Martín San Juan — Midland

Win: San Martín San Juan

Confidence 53%

Reasoning

Сан-Мартин Сан-Хуан — 9. place, 38 points after 26 games (10 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses)
Мидленд — 5. place, 41 points after 27 games (11 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses)
Сан-Мартин Сан-Хуан, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
Мидленд, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
Head-to-head: 1 games, Сан-Мартин Сан-Хуан — 1, Мидленд — 0

Full prediction

Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

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