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CS Minaur Baia Mare vs CSM Timișoara: match prediction on 14 October 2026
CS Minaur Baia Mare
CSM Timișoara
Prediction for
Win: CS Minaur Baia Mare
55%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
55%
1
45%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 06:25- Минаур Бая-Маре — 7. place, 5 points after 4 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- ТСМ Тимишоара — 2. place, 7 points after 4 games (3 wins, 1 losses)
- Минаур Бая-Маре, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- ТСМ Тимишоара, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Минаур Бая-Маре — 4, 2 draws, ТСМ Тимишоара — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
CS Minaur Baia Mare
WWDLW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
CSM Timișoara
DWWWL
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 8
4CS Minaur Baia Mare
2Draw
2CSM Timișoara
- 1 MarCS Minaur Baia Mare — CSM Timișoara24:22
- 28 Sep 2025CSM Timișoara — CS Minaur Baia Mare30:27
- 26 Apr 2025CS Minaur Baia Mare — CSM Timișoara33:33
- 20 Nov 2024CSM Timișoara — CS Minaur Baia Mare31:31
- 22 May 2024CSM Timișoara — CS Minaur Baia Mare35:25
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Oct, 06:25CS Minaur Baia Mare to win at home against CSM Timișoara on 14 October 2026. The model puts the home side ahead on expected goals—28.9 to 27.7—and the head-to-head record runs 4 wins for Minaur against 2 for Timișoara across 8 meetings. A draw suits neither side in this context, and the visitors have not carried their unbeaten run into a fixture where history leans the other way.
Table position
Timișoara sit second with 7 points from 4 matches, Minaur seventh with 5. The gap is narrow—two points—but the away side has played the same number of games and lost one, while the home side's defeat came in their most recent outing against CSM București 27:29. That loss broke a run of four points from three games.
Head-to-head
The last six meetings tell a different story from the table. Minaur won 24:22 in March 2026 and 30:22 in November 2023, while Timișoara took 30:27 in September 2025 and 35:25 in May 2024. Two draws—33:33 in April 2025 and 31:31 in November 2024—fill the middle. The home side has claimed more victories in this pairing, and the margin in the most recent encounter was just two goals.
Form
Minaur have taken 10 points from five matches: three wins, a draw, a loss. Their goal tally stands at 148 for and 122 against. Timișoara are unbeaten in five—four wins, one draw—with 145 goals scored and 132 conceded. The visitors' only blemish was a 21:21 draw away at Potaissa Turda in September, but they have not lost since August. Their last defeat predates the current season.
Model expectations
The simulation projects Minaur to edge the goal count, 28.9 to 27.7. It assigns zero probability to a draw, zero to both teams scoring, and zero to three or more goals in the traditional sense—handball metrics here reflect the expected closeness of the contest. The model does not factor in injuries or fixture congestion; it runs on past output alone.
When the prediction falls away
A draw would break the conclusion, and given Timișoara's habit of grinding out results—evident in their draw at Potaissa and their 27:26 home win over Dinamo București—the visitors could settle for a point rather than chase victory. If they do, the home advantage evaporates and the head-to-head record ceases to matter.
60%