Fredrikstad Women vs Flint Tønsberg Women: match prediction on 10 September 2026

Fredrikstad Women to win with 75% confidence. The model projects a 50.2 to 16.6 goal margin, and Fredrikstad's recent scoring rate—averaging 30.6 per game—leaves little room for doubt. Flint Tønsberg have conceded 30.8 goals per game in the same period, which makes this a mismatch on paper.

Fredrikstad have been prolific in their last five outings. They scored 153 goals while conceding 127, a +26 goal difference. Their most recent outing was a 20:33 loss to Sola in the league, but before that came a 40:19 victory over Goy in the NM Cup. In friendly matches they put past Oppsal Women 38:27 and Fjellhammer 31:22. Only two defeats interrupt the sequence—a 24:26 loss to Gjerpen and the Sola result.

Flint Tønsberg's five-match run mirrors the win-loss split but tells a different story on the scoreboard. They netted 154 goals and conceded 152, a marginal surplus of 2. Their league opener ended in a 29:30 home defeat to Gjerpen, and their cup match saw them edge Randesund 35:34. The remaining three fixtures were against 1. Division opposition, producing two wins and a loss. The defensive record is the concern: three of those five matches saw them concede 32 or more goals.

Both sides sit on zero points after one league match each, having drawn their opening fixtures. Flint Tønsberg occupy eighth place, Fredrikstad eleventh. Position means nothing. The model tracks goal output. A 50.2 expectation for Fredrikstad is not a guess; it is an average derived from their recent scoring frequency. Flint Tønsberg's 16.6 reflects their inability to contain opponents consistently.

The most likely outcome is a Fredrikstad victory by a substantial margin. The model does not suggest a specific scoreline, but the gap between 50.2 and 16.6 points to a one-sided affair. Both teams have shown they can score, but Flint Tønsberg's defensive frailties make a low-scoring game unlikely. The draw probability sits at 0%, and both teams scoring is also projected at 0%—The model predicts a heavy home win.

The prediction breaks if Flint Tønsberg control the tempo. A draw would suit the visitors, and given how they have managed to stay close in recent matches, that is the main threat. If Fredrikstad fail to convert their chances early and Flint Tønsberg capitalise on counter-attacks, the model's projection becomes unreliable. The data does not suggest this will happen, but it is the scenario that breaks the prediction.