Larvik HK Women vs Utleira Women: match prediction on 10 September 2026

Larvik HK Women are expected to secure a convincing victory over Utleira Women in this REMA 1000-ligaen Women fixture on 10 September 2026. The home side sit second with 4 points from 2 matches, while Utleira occupy 12th place with 0 points after 2 draws. The model projects Larvik to score 49.2 goals and Utleira 15.2, with a 98.5% probability of a Larvik win. This outcome depends on Larvik maintaining their current attacking output and Utleira failing to convert their limited chances.

Larvik have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 179 goals and conceding 120. Their most recent league result was a 40:24 victory away at Folló HK Women on 2 September. Before that came a 31:23 home win against Fana Women on 30 August and a 55:13 cup triumph at Glassverket IF Women on 26 August. The only blemish was a 22:31 friendly defeat to Viborg Women on 14 August, but their league form has been flawless with two wins from two.

Utleira's record tells a different story. They have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 in their last 5 outings, netting 112 goals and conceding 123. Their most recent match ended in a 20:26 home loss to Storhamar Women on 2 September, followed by a 17:27 away defeat to Byåsen Women on 30 August. Those results came after a 23:20 cup win at Volda HK Women on 23 August and a 22:22 draw with Levanger HK Women on 26 April.

Model expectations

The model projects a total of 64.4 goals, with a handicap of -12.5 in favor of Larvik. These figures reflect Larvik's dominant scoring rate and Utleira's defensive vulnerabilities. Larvik scored 40 goals in their last match alone, while Utleira failed to reach 20 in theirs. The gap in attacking output is substantial, with Larvik averaging 35.8 goals per match compared to Utleira's 22.4.

A draw would suit Utleira given their tendency to run the clock down in tight matches, though their recent results show they rarely hold leads. Larvik must miss their usual conversion rate for this pick to blow up. Utleira would need to score at least twice and keep a clean sheet, something their last 5 matches show they have not managed consistently.

The outcome would also shift if Larvik rotated their squad heavily or if Utleira found an unexpected attacking spark. A red card for either side or a significant early goal swing would alter the dynamic.