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70%
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MK Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Avishai Motzkin: match prediction on 9 October 2026
MK Beer Sheva
Maccabi Avishai Motzkin
Prediction for
Win: Maccabi Avishai Motzkin
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
41%
1
59%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 7 Oct, 12:05- Бер-Шева — 13. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Маккаби Авивац Мотцин — 8. place, 2 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Бер-Шева, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Маккаби Авивац Мотцин, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Бер-Шева — 2, Маккаби Авивац Мотцин — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
MK Beer Sheva
LLWLL
1 win · 4 losses
Maccabi Avishai Motzkin
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 3
2MK Beer Sheva
0Draw
1Maccabi Avishai Motzkin
- 21 Feb 2025Maccabi Avishai Motzkin — MK Beer Sheva36:34
- 20 Jan 2025MK Beer Sheva — Maccabi Avishai Motzkin41:35
- 14 Oct 2024MK Beer Sheva — Maccabi Avishai Motzkin38:29
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 7 Oct, 12:05Maccabi Avishai Motzkin to win. The model places the away side's expected points at 34 against 32 for the hosts, and the service has already flagged a pick for the visitors at 59% confidence.
Maccabi Avishai Motzkin occupy eighth place with two points from two matches, having secured one victory and one draw. MK Beer Sheva languish in thirteenth with zero points after two drawn fixtures. The visitors have already demonstrated they can edge close encounters, while the hosts have yet to find a winning formula this season.
Beer Sheva's recent form paints a darker picture. In their last five outings they managed just one victory against four defeats, conceding 194 points while scoring 154. That point difference reveals a side struggling to contain opponents, and their opening two draws have done little to build confidence.
The three previous meetings between these sides have gone two ways for MK Beer Sheva and one for Maccabi Avishai Motzkin. The hosts won 41:35 at home in January 2025 and 38:29 in October 2024, suggesting they have had the upper hand historically.
Recent head-to-head results do not guarantee today's outcome, but they provide context for the model's expectations. The away side's 34 expected points suggest they should be able to match or exceed their previous scoring output against these opponents.
A draw suits neither side given the current table positions, but the model assigns zero probability to a stalemate. The prediction falls apart if MK Beer Sheva replicate their home dominance from earlier this year. Their two victories at home against Maccabi Avishai Motzkin both came by comfortable margins of six and nine points respectively. If the hosts can match that intensity, the visitors' advantage evaporates.
The confidence figure of 59% reflects the visitors' superior start to the campaign and their recent victory in this fixture. It does not account for injuries or suspensions, which the available data does not cover. A sudden change in personnel could alter the balance entirely.
They lost 31:32 at Rehovot and 33:38 at Maccabi Tel Aviv, but won 32:31 away at Hapoel Kiryat. Their ability to perform on the road remains unproven over a sustained period.
Beer Sheva's defensive frailties are evident in their point tally. Conceding 40 points in a single match against Nes Tziona and 39 at home to MK Holon suggests vulnerabilities that Maccabi Avishai Motzkin could exploit. The model's expectation of 34 points for the visitors aligns with this assessment.