Skuru Women vs Ystads IF Women: match prediction on 12 September 2026

Skuru Women are 95% likely to win this Swedish Cup fixture on Saturday. The home side sits on four points from three matches, one ahead of Ystads IF Women, and has not lost a cup game this season. They have scored 151 goals and conceded 142 across their last five outings, while Ystads have netted 136 and let in 115. The gap is small on paper but the results tell a clearer story.

Skuru's run

Three wins and a draw from their last four cup matches. They beat Skanela 36-27 at home and 41-28 away, then took AIK to a 31-31 draw before winning 24-22 at the Swedish capital. The only blemish came in a friendly against Skara, a 19-34 defeat on 9 August. Their home record is the key: they have not lost a cup match at Skuru this campaign.

Ystads away

Ystads have mirrored Skuru's pattern in their last five games — three wins, one draw, one loss — but their cup form is less convincing. They drew 21-21 at home with IFK Kungälv before winning 31-19 away. Their cup loss came 24-26 at home to Karlskrona HF, and they beat the same side 34-26 away. The away win against Kungälv shows they can travel, but the home defeat raises questions about consistency on their own floor.

Standings

Both sides occupy second place in the cup standings after three matches each. Skuru lead on points, four to three, with a cleaner record — two wins and a draw against one win, one draw and one loss for Ystads. The difference is a single victory, which in a knockout tournament is the margin that separates progression from elimination.

What the past suggests

Skuru have scored heavily in their cup matches — 36, 41, 31, 24 goals across four games. Ystads have been more modest: 21, 31, 24, 34. The scoring gap is not just in totals but in consistency. Skuru's away win at AIK and home victory over Skanela show they can win in different venues. Ystads' away success against Kungälv is encouraging, but their home loss to Karlskrona suggests they are vulnerable when pressed.

When the prediction breaks

A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down away from home, that is the main threat. If Ystads can frustrate Skuru's attack and keep the score tight, the home side's superior goal difference becomes irrelevant. The model gives a 0% chance of a draw, but handball is unpredictable in the final quarter of an hour, and a late surge from Ystads could level matters. That is the scenario where this conclusion stops holding.