Colorado Avalanche vs Utah Mammoth: match prediction on 21 September 2026

Colorado Avalanche to win. The model expects 3.6 goals for the hosts against 2.7 for the visitors, and the head-to-head record shows Colorado has won four of the last five meetings.

Colorado's recent run has been unkind. In their last five matches they managed only one victory and four defeats, scoring 11 goals while conceding 17. The losses came against two sides: four against Vegas Golden Knights across home and away fixtures, and one against Minnesota Wild at home. The 4:3 win over the Wild on 14 May was their only bright spot in that stretch.

Utah have been slightly more productive in the same period. Two wins and three losses from five games, with 16 goals scored and 19 conceded. Their victories came against the same Vegas opposition — 4:2 at home on 25 April and 3:2 away on 22 April. The three defeats were also to Vegas, including a 1:5 hammering at home on 2 May.

When these sides meet, the pattern has been consistent. Colorado lead 4-1 in their last five encounters. The most recent was a 4:2 win for the Avalanche on 26 February in Utah. Before that came a 1:0 shutout at home on 24 December. Utah's only victory in this span was a 4:3 home win on 22 October.

Colorado are projected to score 3.6 goals, Utah 2.7. The probability of both teams finding the net sits at 91%, and there is a 95% chance of three or more goals in the match. The three most likely scorelines are 3:2, 4:2 and 3:3, each at 5%. The draw probability is only 15%.

This conclusion stops holding if the match ends 3:3 or higher, or if Utah win in regulation or overtime. A result outside those parameters — particularly any Utah victory — would overturn the prediction. The model's figures are computed from goals scored and conceded over many simulated versions of the match; they know nothing of injuries or the fixture list. If either side loses key attackers, the estimate shifts accordingly.

There is one notable change in Colorado's squad. Nichushkin departed after seven years in Denver, with a farewell message published on 13 September. Goalkeeper Ilya Nabokov made his debut for the Avalanche in a 7:2 win against Anaheim on the same date. Meanwhile, Cale Makar signed an eight-year, $163.2 million contract — an NHL record — worth $20.4 million in cap hit.

The fixture is scheduled for 14 May, with Colorado currently fourth and Utah sixth in the standings.