New Jersey Devils vs Ottawa Senators: match prediction on 13 October 2026

Ottawa Senators win. while New Jersey have lost two of their last three, and the model gives Ottawa a slight edge in expected goals at 2.9 to 2.8. Confidence sits at 45%.

Form on the road

Ottawa have taken 12 points from their last five matches, winning four and dropping just one — that loss came 3:5 away at Detroit. They have scored 15 goals and conceded 11, which is a positive differential for a side that has played one more game than New Jersey. The wins include victories over Boston and Toronto on the road, which suggests they can handle hostile environments. New Jersey, by contrast, have won three and lost two in their last five, scoring 14 and conceding 15. They lost 0:6 away at New York Islanders and have been inconsistent at home, winning 4:1 against Vancouver but dropping 3:5 to Utah.

Head-to-head

In the last six meetings the sides are level on three wins each. New Jersey won 4:3 at home in April 2026 and 3:4 away in December, but Ottawa took 4:1 at home in February and 2:0 at home in September 2025. The pattern is clear — Ottawa have been strong at home and competitive away, while New Jersey's home advantage has not been decisive.

What the model sees

The expected goals model projects 2.8 for New Jersey and 2.9 for Ottawa, a margin so thin it barely registers. The draw probability is 18%, both teams to score stands at 89%, and 92% for three or more goals. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2 at 6%, 2:3 at 5%, and 3:2 at 5%. The model does not factor in roster changes, but Ottawa's recent form gives them a slight advantage in the simulation.

Roster shifts

Ottawa have gone through significant changes. Thomas Chabot was named captain on 29 September, replacing Brady Tkachuk who has left the club. Curtis Lazar moved to Lausanne HC in September, and Ben Hutton signed a try-out contract. New Jersey lost Nikita Gusev to HK Sochi on 2 October. These are not injuries or suspensions, but the movement of experienced players could affect chemistry in the early stages of the season.

When the prediction fails

A draw suits New Jersey at home. If the Devils control the tempo and keep the game tight, the 18% draw probability becomes the outcome. Ottawa have shown they can grind out results, but they also conceded five goals in one match. If New Jersey find a way to limit Ottawa's chances — particularly in the final quarter of play — the visitors' edge evaporates. The prediction also breaks if Ottawa suffer an early setback, as they have not yet proven they can come from behind in this fixture.