Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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SKA-VMF St. Petersburg vs Orsk: match prediction on 14 September 2026
SKA-VMF St. Petersburg
Orsk
Prediction for
Win: SKA-VMF St. Petersburg
46%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
46%
1
20%
X
34%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 17:13- Орск — 24. place, 0 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 losses)
- СКА-ВМФ Санкт-Петербург, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Орск, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, СКА-ВМФ Санкт-Петербург — 1, Орск — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
SKA-VMF St. Petersburg
LWWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Orsk
WWWLL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 2
1SKA-VMF St. Petersburg
0Draw
1Orsk
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 17:13SKA-VMF St. Petersburg to win. The hosts have the edge in expected goals, and Orsk's two league defeats so far suggest they are still finding their feet in the VHL.
Ska-VMF have been inconsistent away from home, winning two and losing three in their last five outings. Those results include a 3:2 victory over Izhevsk and a 3:2 win against Olympia, but also heavier defeats — a 3:5 loss to Toros Neftekamsk and a 2:3 exit against Perm. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of those games, and their goal difference of 12:15 reflects a side that creates chances but struggles to defend them.
Orsk's situation is more precarious. They sit 24th in the standings after two matches with zero points, having lost both VHL fixtures. Their recent five games read differently, with three wins and two losses, but those victories came against Chelmet, CSK VVS, AKM and Aktobe — mostly in friendlies or lower-profile matches. Their goal tally of 18:10 over that run masks two home losses to Chelmet and Gornyak.
Two meetings, each side taking one win. Today's result will hinge on who handles the opening exchanges better.
The model projects 2.2 expected goals for the hosts against 1.9 for Orsk, favouring a 2:1 scoreline and a 76% chance of both teams scoring.
A draw suits Orsk. If they can absorb pressure and hit on the counter, their recent scoring form could carry them to a point. They have shown they can score — 18 goals in five matches — and they have not been shut out in any of those games. A stalemate would leave them with something from a difficult away trip, and given how they have managed games in friendlies, that is the main threat to the home side's chances.
Orsk can still take points if they tighten the defensive structure that cost them in their two league losses.
SKA-VMF to win.