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70%
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Aurillac vs CA Brive: match prediction on 17 September 2026
Aurillac
CA Brive
Prediction for
Win: Aurillac
51%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
51%
1
49%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 20:13- Орийак — 11. place, 5 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Брив — 2. place, 13 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Орийак, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Брив, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Орийак — 2, Брив — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Aurillac
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
CA Brive
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 6
2Aurillac
0Draw
4CA Brive
- 17 AprCA Brive — Aurillac75:9
- 5 Dec 2025Aurillac — CA Brive24:13
- 25 Apr 2025Aurillac — CA Brive23:39
- 20 Sep 2024CA Brive — Aurillac48:17
- 26 Apr 2024CA Brive — Aurillac45:13
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 20:13I see CA Brive as the clear winners here. They have won four of six meetings, including a 75-9 thrashing in April this year, and sit second in the table with an unbeaten record. Aurillac have lost four of their last five matches and sit 11th.
That confidence would evaporate if Aurillac find a way to control territory and keep the game tight. They have beaten CA Brive twice at home in recent years, including 24-13 in December 2025. A low-scoring, physical contest where set pieces decide matters would suit Aurillac's game.
Aurillac's recent form offers little comfort. They have won only one of their last five matches, scoring 176 points and conceding 218. They did beat Dax 65-35 at home in September, but that was followed by another heavy loss and they have not found consistency since.
CA Brive look the complete opposite. They have won four of five, scoring 150 points and conceding 118. Their only loss came away to Provence Rugby 39-21 in May. They have won three straight Pro D2 matches this season, including a 38-15 home victory over Nissa and a 37-14 win at Agen. They are 13 points ahead of Aurillac after the same number of games.
The head-to-head record reinforces this picture. CA Brive have won four of six meetings, with the most recent result a 75-9 demolition at home in April. Aurillac's two victories came at home, both in 2025 and 2023, but those margins were far tighter.