Aurillac vs US Dax: match prediction on 4 September 2026

US Dax are the clear favourites here, and the simplest explanation is the gap in form. Aurillac have lost every one of their last five Pro D2 matches, collecting zero points, while Dax have won three of five, gathering nine. That difference is decisive.

Aurillac's campaign has been difficult. They have scored 127 points across those five defeats and conceded 267, a margin of 140 against them. Their most recent outing was a 33:57 loss away at Grenoble FC on 27 August, and before that a 25:36 defeat at US Oyonnax. They are bottom of the table by default, since the season has not yet begun and no standings exist, but their trajectory suggests they will struggle to compete.

Dax have shown they can finish matches. Their 57:19 victory over Narbonne on 27 August was decisive, and they followed it with wins against Nevers and Mont-de-Marsan in April. They have scored 159 points in five games while conceding 130, a positive differential of 29. Their form has been uneven — a 0:47 loss away at Vannes and a 31:33 home defeat to Valence Romans — but the three victories demonstrate capacity to win.

They won 19:15 at home in February 2025 and 26:21 at home in April 2025, while Aurillac's last victory came 36:33 at home in October 2025. Dax have taken the momentum into the new season, and Aurillac have not beaten them since last autumn.

A draw would be the main threat to this conclusion. If Aurillac can contain the game and Dax fail to break through, the visitors' tendency to manage leads could see them settle for a point. That is the one scenario where the prediction stops holding.

Aurillac's record is stark. They have not won any of their last five Pro D2 matches, and the results tell the story: 33:57 at Grenoble FC, 25:36 at US Oyonnax, 36:38 against Grenoble at home, 24:61 at Vannes, and 9:75 at CA Brive. They have scored 127 points and conceded 267, a difference of 140 against them. The season has not started, so there is no table to reference, but their form places them at the bottom regardless.

Dax have been more productive. In their last five games they have won three and lost two, scoring 159 points and conceding 130. Their 57:19 win over Narbonne on 27 August was the most convincing result, while the 0:47 loss away at Vannes and the 31:33 home defeat to Valence Romans show they can struggle away and against stronger opposition.

Dax won 19:15 at home in February 2025 and 26:21 at home in April 2025. Aurillac's last victory was 36:33 at home in October 2025, and before that 27:22 at home in December 2024. The pattern suggests Dax have had the upper hand in the most recent encounters, and that momentum carries forward.

The form gap is clear — Aurillac have zero points from five matches, Dax have nine — and Dax have won the last two head-to-head meetings. Aurillac have not beaten them since October 2025, and their defensive record suggests they will struggle to contain a side that has scored 159 points in five games.

A draw is the scenario that would overturn this prediction. Dax have shown they can manage leads, and if Aurillac keep the game tight, the visitors may be content with a point.