Montpellier vs RC Toulon: match prediction on 4 October 2026

Montpellier have secured a dominant victory over RC Toulon in the Top 14, winning 28–0 at home on 4 October 2026. The result moves Montpellier up to sixth place with 13 points from five matches, while RC Toulon remain in 13th place with 8 points. The visitors have now lost four of their five fixtures in the competition.

Match Summary

The scoreline reflects a total one-sided performance by the hosts. Montpellier’s 28 points were accumulated against a Toulon side that failed to register a single score. Montpellier, who arrived having lost two of their previous four games, including a heavy defeat away to Stade Toulousain, now have a winless run for Toulon extended to four matches across all competitions.

Form and Context

Montpellier’s win places them in the top half of the table, positioning them within reach of the playoff spots. Conversely, Toulon’s position in 13th place keeps them deep in the relegation battle. Historically, Toulon has dominated this fixture, winning five of the last six encounters between the sides. This result marks a reversal of that trend, ending Toulon’s recent superiority over Montpellier.

Statistical Outlook

Pre-match models had predicted a closer contest, estimating Montpellier to score 33.5 points and Toulon 18.2. The actual outcome of 28–0 deviates significantly from those projections, particularly regarding Toulon’s attacking output. The prediction that both teams would score was incorrect, as Toulon failed to score.

The victory provides Montpellier with a psychological boost in their pursuit of a top-eight finish, while Toulon face an uphill task to avoid the drop to Pro D2.