I Liga
Anilana Lodz
KS Warszawianka
Prediction for Anilana Lodz — KS Warszawianka
80%
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Stade Toulousain vs Montpellier: match prediction on 27 September 2026
Stade Toulousain
Montpellier
Prediction for
Win: Stade Toulousain
69%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
69%
1
31%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 25 Sep, 20:15- Стад Тулузен — 2. place, 10 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Монпелье — 5. place, 9 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Стад Тулузен, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Монпелье, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Стад Тулузен — 8, Монпелье — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Stade Toulousain
WWWWW
5 wins
Montpellier
WLWLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 13
11Stade Toulousain
0Draw
2Montpellier
- 27 JunStade Toulousain — Montpellier28:20
- 28 MarStade Toulousain — Montpellier45:29
- 20 Sep 2025Montpellier — Stade Toulousain44:14
- 25 Jan 2025Stade Toulousain — Montpellier27:17
- 21 Sep 2024Montpellier — Stade Toulousain11:20
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 25 Sep, 20:15Toulouse extend dominance with decisive victory
Stade Toulousain defeated Montpellier 40-18 in the Top 14 at Stade Ernest-Wallon on Sunday. The result keeps Toulouse in contention at the top of the table and extends their recent head-to-head advantage over their rivals. The model had predicted a score near 34-19 for the fixture, a projection that aligned closely with the final outcome.
Toulouse arrived in the match unbeaten in their last four outings, including three wins in the Top 14 this season. Montpellier had dropped two of their last three games, with defeats against Section Paloise and Toulouse in June. The visitors entered the fixture in seventh place on nine points, trailing the hosts who sat fourth on ten points after three rounds.
The visit to France ended with a comprehensive margin of victory for the home side. This result marks the eighth win in the last nine meetings for Stade Toulousain against Montpellier. The previous encounter at this venue occurred in June 2026, when Toulouse won 28-20. The hosts scored three times more points than their opponents in the current clash, surpassing Montpellier’s total of 18 by a wide margin.
The victory moves Stade Toulousain further clear in the standings relative to their mid-table rivals. Montpellier remain in seventh place with nine points after three matches. The result confirms the statistical expectation of a home win, as the model assigned a 0% probability to a draw or both teams scoring.