Stade Toulousain — Montpellier: 40:18, Top 14

Stade Toulousain saw off Montpellier 40-18 in the Top 14 on Sunday evening, a result that vindicated our earlier assessment. We had backed the home side with 69 per cent confidence, and they made that look prescient rather than lucky. Toulouse take four points clear of Montpellier in the standings, shifting the balance of the early season.

The hosts never really looked threatened, scoring with a rhythm that left Montpellier chasing shadows. Their forwards established territory early and their backs found space in the channels. By then, the visitors had already conceded too much ground to recover.

Montpellier's defence held firm for patches, but they were reduced to reaction rather than control. Their backline tried to counter-attack but rarely found the line. Things came to a head when Toulouse's second-half surge stretched the game beyond reach.

Our prediction proved accurate because Toulouse's structure at the breakdown gave them the edge. They won more ball at collisions and turned defence into attack faster. Montpellier lacked that same cohesion in the middle of the park.

The result leaves Toulousain fourth on ten points after three matches, while Montpellier sit seventh with nine. Both sides have identical records of two wins and one defeat, but the points difference tells the story. Toulouse's attacking output has been the deciding factor.