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LiigaPloki Women vs OrPo Women: match prediction on 14 October 2026
LiigaPloki Women
OrPo Women
Prediction for
Win: LiigaPloki Women
71%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
71%
1
29%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Oct, 16:45- ЛийгаПлоки Женщины — 7. place, 3 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
- ОрПо Уимен — 8. place, 2 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
- ЛийгаПлоки Женщины, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- ОрПо Уимен, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 12 games, ЛийгаПлоки Женщины — 7, ОрПо Уимен — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
LiigaPloki Women
LLLWW
2 wins · 3 losses
OrPo Women
LLLWL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 18
7LiigaPloki Women
0Draw
11OrPo Women
- 28 FebOrPo Women — LiigaPloki Women1:3
- 6 JanLiigaPloki Women — OrPo Women3:2
- 15 Nov 2025OrPo Women — LiigaPloki Women3:1
- 22 Feb 2025LiigaPloki Women — OrPo Women2:3
- 29 Jan 2025OrPo Women — LiigaPloki Women3:1
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Oct, 16:45LiigaPloki Women are the side to back at home against OrPo Women on 14 October. That confidence holds only if the home side avoids the pattern of recent defeats that has plagued them across five matches.
Form after five
LiigaPloki's last five outings have produced one victory and four defeats, with goals running at 4:13. OrPo Women sit slightly ahead in that comparison with two wins and three losses from five, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Their latest match was a 3:2 home win against Nurmon Jymy Women on the same day. The contrast matters: OrPo have shown they can finish matches, while LiigaPloki have struggled to do so.
Head-to-head pattern
The most recent encounter on 28 February 2026 ended 3:1 to LiigaPloki at OrPo's ground. Before that, LiigaPloki won 3:2 at home on 6 January 2026. That home advantage is the structural factor here.
Early season context
Both teams have played just two league matches this season. LiigaPloki sit seventh with three points, OrPo eighth with two. The one-point gap is negligible at this stage, but it does mean LiigaPloki have a marginally better record in the standings. Only two matches played means limited sample size, yet it also means both sides are still finding their rhythm.
Model expectations
Expected goals of 2.2 for LiigaPloki and 1.6 for OrPo suggest the home side will edge the tally, but not by much. The model gives a 0% chance of a draw and 0% that both teams score, which points to a decisive result rather than a stalemate. The 3+ goals probability is also 0%, confirming a low-scoring affair.
When the prediction fails
If the home side cannot convert their expected goals into actual ones, as they have failed to do in four of their last five matches, the model's edge evaporates. The prediction also relies on LiigaPloki avoiding the defensive frailties that have cost them 13 goals in five outings.