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North Macedonia vs Israel: match prediction on 16 September 2026
North Macedonia
Israel
Prediction for
Win: Israel
71%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
29%
1
71%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 03:13- Северная Македония — 6. place, 0 points after 3 games (0 wins, 3 losses)
- Израиль — 4. place, 2 points after 4 games (1 wins, 3 losses)
- Северная Македония, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Израиль, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Северная Македония — 0, Израиль — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
North Macedonia
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Israel
WLWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 1
0North Macedonia
0Draw
1Israel
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 03:13Israel to win. The visitors have already beaten North Macedonia 3:0 in June and carry a slight edge in the tournament standings. The conclusion stops holding if the home side replicates their 3:0 victory over Ukraine from 11 September.
North Macedonia sit bottom of the group after three defeats. They have taken no points, scored no goals and conceded nine across three home matches against Portugal, Poland and Bulgaria. Their only win this tournament came against Ukraine, but that result sits alongside three losses in their last five games. They have not won away from home in this campaign, losing 0:3 to Bulgaria on 9 September.
Israel occupy fourth place with two points from four matches. Their record reads one win and three losses. They beat Ukraine 3:1 away on 10 September but followed that with defeats to Poland and Bulgaria. Their only victory in the tournament came against Portugal on 13 September, a 3:2 win away from home. They have won two of their last five matches and lost three.
The two sides met once on 20 June 2026 in the European League. Israel won 3:0 at home. That is the only head-to-head meeting recorded in the data. North Macedonia have not beaten Israel in that fixture and have not won a single match against them in the available history.
The model expects North Macedonia to score 1.3 and Israel to score 1.8. The probability of a draw is listed at 0%. The probability of both sides scoring is 0%. The probability of three or more goals is 0%. These figures suggest a narrow victory for the visitors.
A draw would suit the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If North Macedonia produce another performance like their 3:0 win over Ukraine, the prediction fails. The home side have shown they can win at home, but they have lost their other two matches by identical 0:3 scores. Israel's away record is mixed, but they took two points from their four matches while North Macedonia have none from three.
The tournament context places Israel slightly ahead on points and matches played. North Macedonia have three losses from three games. Israel have one win and three losses from four games. The head-to-head record favours the visitors. The model expectations favour the visitors. The conclusion holds unless North Macedonia replicate their Ukrainian victory.