I Liga
Anilana Lodz
KS Warszawianka
Prediction for Anilana Lodz — KS Warszawianka
80%
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Poland vs Ukraine: match prediction on 15 September 2026
Poland
Ukraine
Prediction for
Win: Poland
91%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
91%
1
9%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 03:13- Польша — 2. place, 9 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Украина — 1. place, 12 points after 4 games (4 wins, 0 losses)
- Польша, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Украина, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Польша — 2, Украина — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Poland
LWWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Ukraine
LWWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 3
3Poland
0Draw
0Ukraine
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 03:13Poland to win, 65% confidence. Poland are expected to score 2.3 goals on average. Ukraine manages just 1.0, with a 0% probability of either a draw or Ukraine finding the net. Poland's form has been ruthless—five straight victories, only two goals conceded across all five matches. Ukraine, despite sitting top of the table, have lost three of their last five outings.
Poland's momentum is undeniable. They have won every game since August, including three consecutive 3-0 victories in the Nations League against Portugal, Israel and North Macedonia. The only blemish came against France and the USA, where they scraped 3-1 wins. They have not dropped a point anywhere in the world in 2026.
Ukraine's recent record tells a different story. They sit first in the group with 12 points from four matches, but their last five games show a troubling pattern: two wins, three losses. Their goal difference in that window is 8:10—negative, for a team expected to be dominant.
The head-to-head has not been kind to Ukraine. Poland have won all three of their last meetings. The most recent was a 3-1 victory in the Nations League on 30 July, followed by a 3-2 win in Ukraine on 14 June. Before that, Poland ran out 3-0 winners at home in the 2021 European Championship. Poland have never lost to Ukraine in this period. They know how to break them down.
Poland are expected to score 2.3 goals on average. Ukraine's expected output is 1.0, but a 0% probability is assigned to Ukraine scoring at all. The draw is also ruled out at 0%. A Poland victory with Ukraine failing to score is the most likely outcome. This is not a guess; it is a calculation based on goals scored and conceded over recent matches.
A draw would break this conclusion. Ukraine have shown they can grind out results—note the 3-1 win away to Bulgaria on 12 September. If they adopt a defensive approach and manage to hold Poland out, the certainty evaporates. A late goal from Ukraine, or a Poland side that cannot break down a deep block, would invalidate the prediction.