Slapanice vs Velke Mezirici: match prediction on 20 September 2026

Slapanice are predicted to win, and the confidence is 58%. The model's expected goals put Slapanice at 1.9 and Velke Mezirici at 1.7, and the draw probability sits at 0%. That combination points to a home side victory.

Slapanice have not lost their last five matches in a row — that is wrong. They have won one and lost four, collecting 3 points from 15 available. The win came away at Havlickuv Brod on 19.09.2026, a 3:0 result in the Czech Cup. After that they fell 0:3 to Kometa Brno, then 0:3 away at Hradec Kralove B, 0:3 at Pribram B, and 2:3 at home to Kolin. The goals tell the story: 5 scored, 12 conceded. They keep knocking on the door, but they have not got over the line.

Velke Mezirici have done the opposite. Four wins and one loss in their last five, 12 points and 13 goals scored against 7 conceded. Four wins in five, including two 3-goal margins, before a 1-3 home defeat on 19.09. The form is sharp, and they are staring at the drop if they slip now.

In the table both sides sit on 3 points after 2 matches each. Velke Mezirici are 2nd with 1 win and 1 loss; Slapanice are 3rd with the same record. The gap is nothing, but the momentum is everything. The xG gap is narrow, but the simulation favors the home side.

The last meeting was on 26.09.2020 in the Czech Cup, when Velke Mezirici lost 1:3 at home. Slapanice have not won here in seven years, but that fixture is an outlier. The model relies on simulated averages.

The BTTS market sits at 0%, and 3 or more goals also at 0%. xG tracks seasonal output, not match outcomes. 1.9 means Slapanice most often score one or two.