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Ancud vs Espanol Osorno: match prediction on 17 September 2026
Ancud
Espanol Osorno
Prediction for
Win: Ancud
52%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
52%
1
48%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 02:33- Анкус — 6. place, 0 points after 12 games (4 wins, 8 losses)
- Эспаньол Осорно — 1. place, 0 points after 12 games (9 wins, 3 losses)
- Анкус, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Эспаньол Осорно, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
- Head-to-head: 23 games, Анкус — 9, Эспаньол Осорно — 14
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Ancud
WWLLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Espanol Osorno
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 23
9Ancud
0Draw
14Espanol Osorno
- 2 AugAncud — Espanol Osorno91:92
- 12 JulEspanol Osorno — Ancud87:83
- 19 AprEspanol Osorno — Ancud97:84
- 28 MarAncud — Espanol Osorno70:84
- 12 Oct 2025Ancud — Espanol Osorno72:79
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 15 Sep, 02:33Ancud are the side to back here. The model has Ancud 79 to 77.3, and the momentum has swung their way after Espanol Osorno have lost five in a row despite sitting top of the table.
Ancud have won four of their last five, including a tight 38:37 victory over Valdivia on 14.09.2026. Espanol Osorno have lost every one of theirs, losing 82-83 at home to Valdivia on 12.09.2026. The gap in confidence between the two sides is visible in the scorelines. Ancud have been scoring freely, averaging 71.8 points across their last five. Espanol Osorno have averaged 79.8 points while conceding 86.2.
The table tells one story, the results another. Espanol Osorno sit first after 12 matches with nine wins and three losses, and the last five are all losses. They have conceded 431 points in that period while scoring 401. Ancud, meanwhile, have scored 359 and conceded 354 in their last five. The differential is marginal for Ancud, but Espanol Osorno have been losing by an average of 6.2 points in their recent run.
Espanol Osorno won 92:91 at Ancud's venue on 02.08.2026 and 87:83 at home on 12.07.2026. But Ancud's last win came in the Supercopa on 13.09.2025, and the recent trend suggests Espanol Osorno's dominance is eroding. The model expects Ancud to break that pattern.
The model projects Ancud to score 79 points and Espanol Osorno 77.3, expects both sides to clear 70, and does not expect a close game in terms of outcome, though the margin will be narrow. Ancud's offensive output in recent matches supports the 79-point projection. Espanol Osorno's defensive struggles in their last five games suggest they will not keep the visitors to less.
This prediction fails if Espanol Osorno rediscover their defensive solidity. They have conceded 86.2 points per game in their last five, but they have also lost close games — 82:83 to Valdivia, 91:94 to CD Las Ánimas. If they can hold Ancud under 75 points, the model's projection collapses.
65% confidence. Ancud are the pick.