MPBL
Prediction for Bulacan Kuyas — San Juan Knights
67%
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Prediction for
Win: Meycauayan
67%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 31 Aug, 10:08Meycauayan are expected to win. The gap between sixth and thirteenth place shows in the numbers: the visitors have won 10 of 18 matches while the hosts have managed just three wins across 21 games. Bacolod Masskara's current form makes the outcome even clearer. They have lost all five recent matches, conceding 540 points while scoring only 366, an average deficit of 34.8 points per game.
The visitors bring momentum into this fixture. Three victories in their last five outings include a 91-80 win over Bulacan Kuyas at home and an 88-82 victory against GenSan Warriors. Their two losses came by narrow margins — 73-80 away at Ilagan Isabela Cowboys and 82-84 at home to Mindoro Tamaraws. Meycauayan have not blown opponents out of the water recently, but they have also not collapsed. Bacolod Masskara have done both, with defeats of 45-129 and 64-100 standing out as particularly heavy.
Standings tell a straightforward story. Meycauayan sit sixth after 18 matches with ten wins and eight losses. Bacolod Masskara occupy thirteenth place after 21 fixtures with three victories and eighteen defeats. The hosts have played more games.
The model expects Meycauayan to score 97.5 points and Bacolod Masskara 76.4, a margin of 21.1 points. That differential aligns with what the recent results suggest. The hosts have not kept a clean sheet in their last five games and have conceded 100 or more points on three occasions. Meycauayan's defence has been tighter — they have held opponents under 90 points in four of their five matches. The model's 0% probability for both teams to score and 3+ goals reads as a prediction that Meycauayan will control the tempo and limit Bacolod's output.
The conclusion is that Meycauayan will win unless Bacolod Masskara suddenly find their shooting touch or Meycauayan rotate heavily due to a congested schedule. The hosts have not shown signs of turning things around in any of their five defeats. Their biggest loss came away to Abra Weavers, where they were beaten 45-129. Meycauayan have not suffered a defeat of that magnitude in the same period.