Boulogne sur Mer vs Le Havre: match preview on 5 October 2026

Le Havre have the stronger recent record and a tighter point differential, and Boulogne sur Mer's home advantage is not enough to offset that gap.

Le Havre's form looks sharper at this stage. Three wins from five games against two for the hosts, and their points scored and conceded are almost level — 395 to 396. Boulogne sur Mer have dropped 11 points over the same period, 393 to 404. The visitors lost their last outing 85:100 away at Aix Maurienne, but they also lost 74:82 at home to Ada Blois last November.

Ethan Mbappé is out for three weeks with an ankle injury. That is a real blow for Le Havre's backcourt options, but the squad has depth. Daler Kuzyaev has already passed a medical at Dynamo Makhachkala and will not be available either, though his departure was confirmed weeks ago and the team has adjusted. The injury list changes nothing — Le Havre still have more firepower on paper.

There is no head-to-head record in the database for this fixture. Le Havre have played in Pro B this season and have already faced teams like St. Chamond and Rouen Métropole Basket. Boulogne sur Mer's recent matches have all been in the Coupe de France.

Boulogne sur Mer have won two of their last five home games in this competition. They beat Caen 74:69 in September 2024 but lost to Denain-Voltaire 90:100 and Gravelines-Dunkerque 85:87. The home court should help, but it has not been a fortress. Both sides are capable of winning at home, but the visitors have shown they can compete against higher-level opposition.

Le Havre are edging this one. The form gap is small but real, and the visitors have proven they can handle Pro B-level teams. Boulogne sur Mer need to be sharper than they have been in their losses to Denain-Voltaire and Gravelines-Dunkerque. A draw suits the visitors — and that is the main threat. If Le Havre fall behind early, they will need to find another gear.

This conclusion stops holding if Boulogne sur Mer's home advantage proves decisive. If they come out strong and hold Le Havre to under 70 points for the first half, the momentum could shift. A draw would also undermine the prediction, and Le Havre have shown they can be vulnerable when they concede 100 points. The Mbappé injury is a factor, but not a game-changer unless the team struggles to find rhythm without him.

Le Havre are the better side on paper. They have more wins, a tighter point differential, and experience against Pro B opposition. Boulogne sur Mer have their home court and a recent victory, but the rest of their results are not convincing. Le Havre are the pick.