Hogsbo Basket vs Jämtland Basket: match prediction on 16 October 2026

Jämtland Basket win here. The visitors hold a 5-1 advantage in the last six meetings and carry superior shooting and rebounding figures into Saturday's fixture. Hogsbo Basket have won only two of their past five matches while conceding more points than they score, and the model puts Jämtland ahead by 7.3 points on average.

The visitors are tipped for victory. Their recent form shows three wins from five games, including a 93-69 victory at Umea and a 78-72 win away at Uppsala. Hogsbo have taken just two victories—85-81 against Nassjö and 96-90 over Borås—while losing to Södertälje, Uppsala, and Jämtland themselves. Jämtland have scored 435 and conceded 418, while Hogsbo have 428 for and 441 against.

The head-to-head record weighs heavily. Jämtland won 85-74 and 107-95 at home this season, and 114-98 in February. Hogsbo's sole victory came 84-70 in December 2024, with a 109-111 loss in September 2025. Even when Hogsbo have hosted, they have lost four of six encounters. The visitors have found answers where the home side has not.

Statistical breakdowns reinforce the picture. Jämtland average 29.6 field goals made from 67.75 attempts compared to Hogsbo's 29 from 61.88. The visitors also win more rebounds—36.38 versus 26.25—across both offensive and defensive categories. Jämtland record 19.5 assists per game against Hogsbo's 16.38, and their free throw accuracy shows 17.8 made from 23.63 attempts compared to Hogsbo's 13 from 25.25.

The model expects Jämtland to score 97 points and Hogsbo 89.7. That 7.3-point margin aligns with what the visitors have produced in recent meetings: 11 points, 12 points, 16 points, and 16 points in their four wins this year. The probability of a draw sits at 0%, and the model does not foresee either side failing to score.