Maccabi Haifa Women vs Maccabi Karmiel Women: match prediction on 28 September 2026

Maccabi Haifa Women are expected to edge Maccabi Karmiel Women in the Ligat Ha'Al Women fixture on 28 September, with the model's projected scoreline figures pointing to a narrow home victory. The model puts Haifa at 72.9 and Karmiel at 68.6, a margin that favours the hosts despite Karmiel's superior recent record. This conclusion holds only if Haifa translate their home advantage into performance; a Karmiel side that has won two of three meetings between the sides could still take points if the visitors match the model's expectation for their output.

Haifa's last five matches have produced two wins and three defeats, yielding six points from 15 available. Their most recent outing saw a 51:88 home loss to Maccabi Ramat Gan, followed by a 42:79 away defeat to the same opposition. Before that run of defeats they beat Hapoel Be'er Sheva 90:64 away and Hapoel Jerusalem 62:45 at home. The scoring pattern shows vulnerability, particularly in the Ramat Gan fixtures where they conceded heavily.

Karmiel have collected nine points from their last five games, winning three and losing two. They opened their current sequence with a 59:92 home loss to Maccabi Ashdod Women and then suffered a 51:110 away defeat to the same side. The turnaround came with victories over Haifa 54:53 away, Hapoel Jerusalem 81:59 at home, and Hapoel Be'er Sheva 87:59 away. Karmiel have shown they can produce results against mid-table opposition.

The head-to-head record over the past year gives Haifa one win and Karmiel two. On 9 February Karmiel lost 68:69 at home to Haifa, but Haifa then dropped a 53:54 home match in March and lost 58:73 away in January. The most recent meeting ended 53:54 to Karmiel, a result that fits the pattern of tight, low-scoring encounters between these sides.

The model's projected scoreline of 72.9 for Haifa and 68.6 for Karmiel suggest a close match decided by a single goal or less. The probability figures show 0% for a draw, 0% for both teams to score, and 0% for three or more goals, which points to a single-digit, one-sided outcome in terms of goal difference. Haifa's home advantage appears to be the deciding factor in the model's calculation.

This prediction would not hold if Karmiel replicate their away form against Haifa's weaker recent performances. The visitors have won two of three meetings and have shown capacity to score in tight games. If Karmiel's attacking output reaches or exceeds the model's 68.6 expectation while Haifa fall short of their 72.9, the home side could find themselves on the wrong side of a result they were expected to win.