Szolnoki Olajbanyasz vs Kaposvári KK: match prediction on 29 September 2026

Szolnoki Olajbanyasz to beat Kaposvári KK. The model puts them at 93.4 points to 81.8, and the head-to-head record backs that up: six straight wins for the hosts, zero for the visitors. Confidence 72%.

The head-to-head shadow

Six matches since October 2022. Szolnoki Olajbanyasz won every single one. The margins tell the story too — 92:86 away, 89:86 at home, 96:90 on the road, 94:82 at home, 86:70 at home, 94:88 away. The visitors have never taken a point from this fixture in that period, not even a draw.

Recent form tells a different tale

Szolnoki Olajbanyasz have won two and lost three in their last five games. They scored 430 points and conceded 461, a negative differential of 31. Their most recent match was a 104:93 home win over OSE Lions on 25 September, but before that came losses to Falco KC Szombathely on three occasions. Kaposvári KK look sharper on paper — three wins, two losses, 420 points scored against 437 conceded. They beat Szedeak 99:98 at home on 26 September and took two wins over Atomerőmű Paks in May.

What the model sees

The projection gives Szolnoki Olajbanyasz 93.4 points and Kaposvári KK 81.8. That is a gap of 11.6 points, and the model assigns 0% probability to a draw, 0% to both teams reaching their typical output, and 0% to three or more "goals" — in basketball terms, that means the model expects a clear winner without the game drifting into uncertainty. The visitors' recent form does not factor into these calculations; the model works only from goals scored and conceded.

Where the prediction breaks

A draw suits Kaposvári KK — and given how they run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat. If the visitors manage to hold Szolnoki Olajbanyasz to under 85 points while pushing past 88 themselves, the model's comfortable margin evaporates. The head-to-head record is historic, not prophetic, and a single match where Kaposvári KK shoot above their recent average could flip the expected outcome.

The home advantage

Szolnoki Olajbanyasz have won three of their six head-to-head meetings at home, losing none. Their last home game was the 104:93 victory over OSE Lions, a 11-point margin. Kaposvári KK have lost all three of their away fixtures against Szolnoki Olajbanyasz, with margins of 8, 6 and 6 points respectively. The visitors have not won here in seven years, not since October 2022.

What this means for the match

The visitors arrive with better recent form but carry no psychological advantage. Szolnoki Olajbanyasz have beaten them six times in a row, and the model expects them to do so again. The differential between the teams' recent scoring — 430 vs 420 points in five games — is marginal, but the historical dominance and home record tip the balance. Kaposvári KK will need to shoot above their recent average and limit Szolnoki Olajbanyasz to under their projected 93.4 points.