Tokyo Sunrockers vs Toyama Grouses: match preview on 9 October 2026

Tokyo Sunrockers should win this one. They've won four of five, while Toyama Grouses have managed only two victories in the same span, and the gap between them shows in the scoring too — Tokyo have netted 455 points to Toyama's 411 and conceded fewer.

Recent form

Tokyo's trajectory is clear. They beat Chiba 95-79 at home before dropping a narrow 92-97 defeat, then bounced back with consecutive wins over Akita — 86-76 and 90-63 — before closing out the week with a 92-85 victory away at Shiga. Three straight wins heading into this fixture. Toyama's run has been nothing like it. They lost at home to Kyoto Hannaryz 77-81 and Utsunomiya Brex 77-99, won 77-67 against Brex, then lost 81-99 away at Shinshu before a 99-85 comeback win over the same side. Two wins and three losses, and the defeats have been heavy.

Scoring patterns

Tokyo average 91 points per game across their last five matches. Toyama sit at 82.2. The difference matters when these sides meet — Tokyo's attack has been sharper, and their defence has tightened. They conceded just 80 points in their last two games combined, while Toyama have let in 178 in the same period. The gap between 455 and 400 for Tokyo versus 411 and 431 for Toyama tells you who's been in control.

Home advantage

Tokyo play at home, and their record there has been solid. Four of their five recent matches were at their own court, and they won three of those — including the 95-79 demolition of Chiba and the 90-63 thrashing of Akita. Toyama have played more away games in this sample, losing both trips to Shinshu. The home floor gives Tokyo another edge on top of the form gap.

The prediction

I see Tokyo Sunrockers winning by 10 to 15 points. They've been sharper, more consistent, and they have the home court. The number drops if Toyama find their shooting touch early or if Tokyo's defence sags after the opening quarter.

What changes things

A draw would be the surprise result, and it's the one scenario that breaks this prediction. Toyama have shown they can score 99 points in a game, and if they hit their free throws at the rate they normally do — 15.9 per game on average — they could keep it closer than expected. But Tokyo's recent form doesn't suggest they'll let that happen.