Zrinjski Mostar vs Promo: match prediction on 5 October 2026

Zrinjski Mostar to win

I see Zrinjski Mostar taking this one, backed by the model's 83.3 expected points against Promo's 78.8. The home side has been in freefall — five straight defeats, 383 points scored and 407 conceded — but the numbers still point to them edging out a side that has won three of five but struggled away from home recently.

The model's expectation is built on what each side typically produces, not on the last five games. When you strip away the current form, the home team is expected to outscore their visitors by roughly four and a half points.

Home advantage matters here. The last meeting on 07.02.2026 ended 88:55 in favour of Zrinjski Mostar — a thirty-three-point margin that suggests they can dominate when playing on their own court. Promo have not won here in the last two visits, losing 95:76 in November 2025 and 80:68 in April 2023. That pattern holds even though the overall head-to-head is level at three wins apiece across six meetings.

Promo's away form is the weak link. Of their three recent victories, two came at home — against Mrkonjic Grad and Slavija. The third was a narrow 98:92 win away at Student Igokea. Still, the away record is not strong enough to suggest they can overturn the model's expectation on this ground.

The model gives a 0% chance of a draw, and 0% for both teams to score points. The 3+ points figure is also 0%, which tells you the model expects neither side to explode beyond their normal output.

If Promo can match Zrinjski Mostar's expected 83 points, the conclusion changes. The visitors would need to find their shooting form from the 98:92 win against Student Igokea and sustain it for forty minutes. If Zrinjski Mostar continues to concede more than they score — they have lost every game by an average of four points — the margin shrinks and Promo's away resilience could turn this.