Montenegro secured a narrow 2-1 victory over Cyprus in their UEFA Nations League League C - 1 fixture on Thursday evening. The result keeps both sides level on points after this opening matchday, with the hosts claiming all three points at home.
Marcus Edwards gave the visitors a surprise lead in the 55th minute, but Nikola Krstović equalised from the penalty spot just eleven minutes later. Milutin Osmajić then struck in the 86th minute to complete the turnaround for Montenegro.
By then the visitors had already seen their momentum shift. We had backed the home side at 46 per cent confidence, and while that figure never looked particularly high, the match unfolded in a way that suggested the hosts would eventually find a way through. Cyprus created chances, but Montenegro's response was sharper when it mattered.
The statistics tell a story of dominance without conversion. Montenegro enjoyed 64 per cent possession and registered 133 attacks compared to Cyprus's 67. The hosts created three big chances against one for their visitors, yet their shot accuracy sat at just 21 per cent. They fired 14 shots within the penalty area but could only find the net twice.
Cyprus were more direct in their approach, completing 224 passes to Montenegro's 528, but their xG figure of 1.03 suggested they were relying on moments rather than sustained pressure. Their goalkeeper made only two saves compared to three for the Montenegrin keeper, which tells you something about how the match played out.
Both managers made changes to try and shift the balance, with Montenegro bringing on Stevan Jovetić and Ognjen Gasevic in the 59th and 60th minutes respectively. Cyprus responded with three substitutions around the 71st minute mark, but the game had already been decided by that stage.
The result leaves both teams on equal footing in the table, though that figure means little this early in the campaign. What matters is that Montenegro showed they can react when needed, and Cyprus will look at what went wrong when they had the opportunity to lead.
