Estonia 1:0 Luxembourg: UEFA Nations League Match Result

Match report

Estonia and Luxembourg played out a goalless draw in their UEFA Nations League meeting at the A. Le Coq Arena on Friday. The hosts took an early lead through Rasmus Peetson in the fifth minute, but the visitors could not find an equaliser despite enjoying more possession. The result leaves Estonia third in the table with two points from two games, while Luxembourg remain in second place on three points. The opening goal came quickly, Peetson finishing inside the box before the visitors could settle. From then on the match settled into a pattern where Estonia defended their advantage and Luxembourg searched for a way through. Several yellow cards followed as the game grew tighter, with Enes Mahmutovic and Jürgen Henn the first to be booked before half-time. Substitutions began to change the tempo in the second half. Estonia brought on Aiman Dardari and Enzo dos Santos together in the 62nd minute, while Mattias Männilaan came on shortly after. Luxembourg responded with two changes in the 73rd minute, introducing Kevor Palumets and Vincent Thill, and later added Florian Bohnert and Enes Mahmutovic for the visitors. The statistics tell a story of different approaches. Estonia registered nine shots on target against just two for Luxembourg, yet the visitors controlled 54 per cent of possession and launched more attacks overall. The hosts created two big chances and accumulated an expected goals figure of 1.47, while Luxembourg managed only 0.49 despite taking more shots. Estonia's recent form had shown a tendency to grind results, and this match followed that pattern. They drew 1-1 with Iceland and 0-0 with Bulgaria in their previous outings, and here they held firm after going ahead. Luxembourg's performance contrasted with their 3-0 defeat to Iceland on Tuesday, but they still sit above Estonia in the standings despite the draw. The result keeps both teams in contention within League C. Estonia remain level on points with second-placed Luxembourg, though the visitors hold the advantage from their earlier win. What mattered most was that Estonia took something from the game, and the points could prove valuable as the campaign progresses.

Prepared from match data

Key numbers

Possession, % 46 – 54

Shots on target 9 – 2

Shots off target 1 – 4

Expected goals 1.47 – 0.49

⚽ 5' Rasmus Peetson — Goal 🟨 29' Enes Mahmutovic — Yellow card 🟨 43' Jürgen Henn — Yellow card ⇄ 62' Aiman Dardari — Substitution ⇄ 62' Enzo dos Santos — Substitution ⇄ 66' Mattias Männilaan — Substitution 🟨 68' Omar Natami — Yellow card ⇄ 72' Kevor Palumets — Substitution ⇄ 73' Vincent Thill — Substitution 🟨 73' Märten Kuusk — Yellow card 🟨 78' Vahid Selimović — Yellow card ⇄ 80' Mattias Käit — Substitution 🟨 82' Karol Mets — Yellow card ⇄ 83' Florian Bohnert — Substitution ⇄ 83' Enes Mahmutovic — Substitution 🟨 84' Leandro Barreiro — Yellow card 🟨 85' Eldin Dzogovic — Yellow card 🟨 87' Mathias Olesen — Yellow card 🟨 88' Markus Poom — Yellow card

Match events

5' 1:0 Estonia Goal Rasmus Peetson
29' 1:0 Luxembourg Yellow card Enes Mahmutovic
43' 1:0 Estonia Yellow card Jürgen Henn
62' 1:0 Luxembourg Substitution Aiman Dardari off: Hamza Kadamani
62' 1:0 Luxembourg Substitution Enzo dos Santos off: Sebastien Thill
66' 1:0 Estonia Substitution Mattias Männilaan off: karel mustmaa
68' 1:0 Luxembourg Yellow card Omar Natami
72' 1:0 Estonia Substitution Kevor Palumets off: Markus Soomets
73' 1:0 Luxembourg Substitution Vincent Thill off: Timothé Rupil
73' 1:0 Estonia Yellow card Märten Kuusk
78' 1:0 Luxembourg Yellow card Vahid Selimović
80' 1:0 Estonia Substitution Mattias Käit off: Mihkel Ainsalu
82' 1:0 Estonia Yellow card Karol Mets
83' 1:0 Luxembourg Substitution Florian Bohnert off: Mathias Olesen
83' 1:0 Luxembourg Substitution Enes Mahmutovic off: Eldin Dzogovic
84' 1:0 Luxembourg Yellow card Leandro Barreiro
85' 1:0 Luxembourg Yellow card Eldin Dzogovic
87' 1:0 Luxembourg Yellow card Mathias Olesen
88' 1:0 Estonia Yellow card Markus Poom

Statistics

46 Possession, % 54

9 Shots on target 2

1 Shots off target 4

1.47 Expected goals 0.49

2 Big chances 0

72 Attacks 97

7 Corners 3

13 Fouls 12

12 Free kicks 13

4 Offsides 2

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

5 Goal kicks 2

18 Throw-ins 13

All statistics

8/1844% Aerial duels 10/1856%

63 Backward passes 98

4 Blocked shots 2

26 Clearances 24

3/1718% Crosses 4/1822%

6/1060% Dribbles 5/1242%

0.80 Expected assists 0.63

52 Failed passes 49

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Interceptions 7

11 Key passes 6

23/4353% Long passes 31/4766%

32 Passes into the final third 129

141 Passes in the opposition half 286

322 Passes in own half 258

0.64 Shot accuracy 0.25

4 Shots from outside the box 4

10 Shots inside the box 4

9/1656% Tackles 8/1362%

446 Total passes 526

Line-ups

Estonia

Starting XI
#	Player	number
12	Matvei Igonen	12
2	Märten Kuusk	2
3	Maksim Paskotši	3
18	Karol Mets	18
4	Mattias Käit	4
6	Rasmus Peetson	6
10	K. Palumets	10
14	P. Kristal	14
19	Michael Schjønning-Larsen	19
20	Markus Poom	20
17	Mattias Männilaan	17

Substitutes
#	Player	number
1	Karl Jakob Hein	1
22	Karl Andre Vallner	22
5	Erko Jonne Tõugjas	5
13	Joseph Saliste	13
16	J. Tamm	16
7	Robi Saarma	7
8	Markus Soomets	8
11	Mihkel Ainsalu	11
15	M. Skvortsov	15
23	Frank Liivak	23
9	K. Mustmaa	9
21	Alex Matthias Tamm	21

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Luxembourg

Starting XI
#	Player	number
1	Anthony Christian Moris	1
3	Enes Mahmutović	3
4	Florian Bohnert	4
5	Vahid Selimović	5
13	Dirk Delfin Carlson	13
6	Joao Tomas de Sousa Moreira Cruz	6
7	Ayman Dardari	7
8	Enzo dos Santos	8
11	Vincent Thill	11
15	Omar Natami	15
9	Jayson Videira Pereira	9

Substitutes
#	Player	number
12	T. Pereira Cardoso	12
23	Tim Roby Kips	23
2	Eldin Džogović	2
14	Eric Veiga	14
18	S. Ikene	18
22	Marvin Martins Santos da Graça	22
10	Timothé Rupil	10
16	Leandro Barreiro Martins	16
17	Hamza Kadameni	17
19	Mathias Flaga Olesen	19
20	Miguel Fernandes Goncalves	20
21	Sébastien Thill	21

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Match prediction: Estonia — Luxembourg

Slight edge: Luxembourg

Confidence 40%

Reasoning

Средняя линия 49 букмекеров: победа Люксембург 2.49, победа Эстония 2.94, ничья 3.05
Конторы расходятся в оценке: от 2.30 до 2.61 (13%)
Эстония — 3. place, 2 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
Люксембург — 2. place, 3 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 losses)
Эстония, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
Люксембург, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses

Full prediction

Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

Recent form

Estonia

LWLDDW

Recent matches

All team matches

Luxembourg

WLWWLL

Recent matches

All team matches

Estonia — Luxembourg: 1:0, UEFA Nations League

Match report

Key numbers

Match events

Statistics

Line-ups

Estonia

Luxembourg

Match prediction: Estonia — Luxembourg

Reasoning

Recent form

Estonia

Luxembourg