Nottingham Forest and Leeds United met in the first match of the Premier League season at the City Ground on Saturday, and the visitors took all three points with a single goal. The final score was 0:1, decided in the closing stages of the match. It was a result that reflected the cautious nature of the encounter rather than anything spectacular.
The game had a moment of drama early on when Harry Wilson's effort for Leeds was cancelled out by the referee after the VAR review showed he was offside in the twenty-fifth minute. Forest pushed forward but could not find a way through, while Leeds held their shape and waited for their chance. There were yellow cards for Ola Aina and Dominic Calvert-Lewin before half-time, and then Jair picked up a booking in the fifty-second minute.
And here's the thing about the statistics — Forest had more than half the possession but could only manage two shots on target, while Leeds were more efficient with three attempts and one result. The hosts created nothing in terms of big chances, and their expected goals figure of 0.66 tells you everything about a match where chances went begging. Leeds, with 0.47 expected goals, made do with what they had.
By then, the substitutions were coming thick and fast. Dan Ndoye came on for Forest in the sixty-second minute, followed by Wilson for Leeds at sixty-six. Aina and Jair were replaced together in the seventy-fourth, and Brandon Aaronson came on for Leeds two minutes later. Murillo was the last change, brought off in the ninety-third minute as the game moved towards its conclusion.
Anton Stach was the one who put it to bed, scoring in the eighty-eighth minute to give Leeds the win they deserved. The result leaves Forest in fifteenth place with one point from two games, while Leeds sit eighth with four. Not much to read into it at this stage, but you can see the difference in how both sides are approaching the season.