Benfica vs Estoril: match prediction on 31 August 2026

Benfica are 1.16 favourites to beat Estoril, and that price reflects a side that has won five of their last six meetings against this opponent while scoring 16 goals in their past five matches. The model puts Benfica's expected goals at three, Estoril's at 0.8, and assigns an 80% probability to a home victory. That figure rests on the gap between what Benfica have been delivering and what Estoril have managed to produce.

The form gap

Benfica sit eighth with four points from two matches, having won one and drawn one. Their last five games across all competitions brought three victories and two draws without a defeat, with 16 goals scored and five conceded. They beat Aarhus GF 3-1 away and 3-1 at home in the Europa League, then dismantled Casa Pia 7-0 on the road. Estoril occupy seventeenth place with just one point from three matches, losing twice and drawing once. Their last five outings produced zero wins, three draws and two defeats, with only two goals scored and six conceded. They lost 2-0 at home to Rio Ave and 2-0 away at Nacional, managing draws against Famalicão and Belenenses in what have been quiet attacking displays.

The suspension threat

Estoril face a selection headache. Miguel Ângelo da Silva Rocha carries a red card from 16 August alongside three yellow cards, meaning he is suspended. Ferro and André Filipe Ferreira Lacximicant each have three yellow cards and risk suspension if booked. Benfica also have three players at three yellows — G. Prestianni, Richard Ríos and goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin — though none have been sent off. The absence of a central defender would compound Estoril's defensive vulnerabilities, especially given they have conceded 27 goals across their recent fixtures.

What the history shows

Benfica have dominated this fixture. In the past six meetings they won five and drew once. The most recent encounter on 16 May 2026 ended 3-1 to Benfica at Estoril. Before that, Benfica won 3-1 at home in January 2026, then 2-1 away in May 2025. They kept a clean sheet in a 3-0 home win in December 2024 and won 3-1 at home in March 2024. The only draw came in the Taça da Liga in January 2024, ending 1-1.

The goal pattern

Benfica score heavily in the opening 15 minutes, accounting for 26% of their 66 goals in that window. They also find the net between 46 and 60 minutes (18%) and in the final 15 (17%). Estoril's scoring is concentrated in the closing stages, with 42% of their 12 goals coming between 76 and 90 minutes. Defensively, Benfica have conceded 26% of their 35 goals in the final 15 minutes and 26% between 46 and 60 minutes. Estoril have surrendered 37% of their 27 goals in the opening 15 minutes, which suggests they start matches vulnerable.

The market and the model

The line has not moved since opening on 31 August. Benfica 1.16, draw 7.29, Estoril 13.96 across 43 bookmakers. The model's expected goals of 3-0.8 align with the most likely scorelines: 2-0 at 10%, 3-0 at 10%, and 2-1 at 8%. A three-goal or more game is expected 72% of the time, while both teams scoring sits at 52%. The draw probability is 12%.

When the prediction breaks

A Benfica win does not hold if Estoril's late-game scoring pattern materialises in the final 15 minutes and catches Benfica off guard, particularly given Benfica concede 26% of their goals in that period. The model's figures are computed from goals scored and conceded over many simulated versions of the match and know nothing of injuries or the fixture list. Benfica's Europa League involvement with Aarhus GF and Heart of Midlothian may cause congestion, and the suspension of Miguel Ângelo da Silva Rocha removes a defensive option. If Estoril camp in the final third and exploit Benfica's late-game vulnerability, a draw becomes the main threat.