CD Marathon vs LD Alajuelense: match prediction on 11 September 2026

CD Marathon win. They have built momentum with three wins in their last five matches, including a 5:0 demolition of Estrella Roja on 6 September and a 3:0 victory over Real Estelí in this competition. Alajuelense, by contrast, have won just once in that span and sit on four points from five games. Marathon 1-0 Alajuelense.

CD Marathon's recent run reads like a side finding its rhythm. They have scored 11 goals across those five matches while conceding only three, and their attacking output has been consistent rather than sporadic. The 5:0 win over Estrella Roja demonstrated they can dominate domestically, and the 3:0 result against Real Estelí showed they can do the same in cup competition. 27% of their goals arrive between the 46th and 60th minute, followed by 22% in the opening half. They have not looked vulnerable in the final 15 minutes, conceding just 5% of their goals in that period.

Alajuelense's form tells a different story. One victory, one draw, three defeats has left them with four points and a goal difference of minus two. They lost 2:0 at home to Deportivo Saprissa on 6 September and have now gone two matches without a win in all competitions. Their defensive frailty is visible: they have conceded six goals in five games, with 26% of those coming between the 46th and 60th minute. The 3:1 win over Plaza Amador FC on 27 August was their only bright spot, but that was followed immediately by a 1:0 defeat away at Firpo in the same competition.

They have played CD Marathon once in recent years, on 2 August 2024, and won 3:1 at home. That result belonged to a different season and a different context. Marathon's current form, with ten points from five matches, does not align with the side that conceded three goals in that fixture. The visitors will need to produce something closer to that performance to avoid another defeat, and their current trajectory suggests otherwise.

The model's figures point toward a narrow home victory. A 1:0 scoreline carries 17% probability, followed by 0:0 at 16% and 1:1 at 13%. The draw probability sits at 32%, with both teams scoring at 35%. CD Marathon's expected goals of 1.1 suggest they will most often find the net once or twice, while Alajuelense's 0.8 indicates they will struggle to score. Marathon's attacking output and defensive solidity over the last five matches provide a foundation for this expectation.

This conclusion stops holding if Alajuelense manage to control the tempo and protect their lead. A draw suits the visitors given how they tend to run the clock down in tight matches, and the 32% probability of a stalemate is not negligible. If they can limit CD Marathon's chances in the 46th to 60th minute window—when 27% of the home side's goals have arrived—the model's edge narrows considerably. The visitors would also need to avoid conceding early, as Marathon have scored 8% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and 8% between 16 and 30 minutes.