Coal India vs Mohun Bagan Super Giant II: match prediction on 10 September 2026

Mohun Bagan Super Giant II take the points here. The visitors have been sharper in attack and more clinical in front of goal, and the model gives them the narrow edge with 1.3 expected goals against Coal India's 1.

Mohun Bagan Super Giant II sit one point above Coal India in the Calcutta Premier Division table. Seven wins from eleven matches puts them third on 23 points, while Coal India are fourth with 22 points from six victories, four draws and a single loss. The margin is negligible, but the quality of results tells a different story. Coal India have also gone unbeaten in five, but two of those were draws and they have scored 10 while letting in four.

The attacking patterns diverge sharply. Coal India score 41% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and 29% between 31 and 45 minutes. They have conceded 100% of their eight goals between 61 and 75 minutes. Mohun Bagan Super Giant II are more evenly distributed, with 25% in the first half and 20% in each of the three remaining periods. They have conceded 60% of their five goals after 76 minutes, which mirrors Coal India's late vulnerability.

Both sides are unbeaten in their last five, but the context differs. Coal India have played every one of those five at home, winning three and drawing twice. Mohun Bagan Super Giant II have done the same away, with four wins and a draw against East Bengal. The visitors' away record includes a 6-0 demolition of George Telegraph and consecutive 3-0 victories over BSS Sporting and Bidhannagar. Coal India's home results have been tighter — a 5-2 win over Wari and a 2-0 shutout of Mohammedan SC.

The model expects a low-scoring affair. Coal India at 1.0 expected goals, Mohun Bagan Super Giant II at 1.3. The draw sits at 28%, both teams to score at 46%, and three or more goals at 41%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 and 0:1 each at 13%, followed by 1:0 at 10%. That distribution suggests a result decided by a single goal, with the visitors slightly more likely to find the net.

This conclusion stops holding if Coal India exploit their late-game strength. They have scored 41% of their goals after 76 minutes and Mohun Bagan Super Giant II have conceded 60% of their goals in the same period. A late breakthrough would reverse the model's expectation. It would also change the dynamics entirely, turning a tight contest into a home victory on momentum rather than form.