Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Esteghlal FC to win at home against Persepolis. The hosts have not lost in five matches, scoring nine goals while conceding just one, while the visitors have dropped points in two of their last five outings. The projection puts Esteghlal FC's expected goals at 1.1 compared to Persepolis's 0.9, and the most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 14%.

Esteghlal FC's run since late February has been methodical. They beat Fajr Sepasi 2:1, Mes Shahr-e Babak 4:0, Nassaji Mazandaran 1:0, and Sepahan FC 2:0, then held Foolad to a 0:0 draw on 28 August. Four wins and one draw, 13 points, and a goal difference of 9:1. E. Gholizadeh leads their scorers with four goals, followed by S. Sakharhizan on three. The side scores heavily in the opening 15 minutes and again in the final 15, with 33% of their goals arriving in each of those windows. They concede 60% of their goals after the 76th minute, a pattern that suggests late-game vulnerability but also a tendency to see out results once ahead.

Persepolis has been less consistent. Three wins and two losses in their last five matches, 10 goals scored and 4 conceded. They beat Malavan 3:0 and Esteghlal Khuzestan 4:1 at home, then won 2:0 away at Shams Azar Qazvin. But they lost 0:1 away to Tractor and 1:2 away to Chadormalu SC. A. Alipour, M. Mohebi, R. Adi, and Thievy Guivane Bifouma Koulossa each have one goal in the last six months. The visitors have not been dominant in any particular period, with their goals spread across the first half and early second half, though they have conceded 29% of their goals in the final 15 minutes.

Esteghlal FC sit second on 10 points, one ahead of Persepolis on 9. The gap is narrow, but the visitors have already suffered a defeat while the hosts have not. In the head-to-head, eight matches have been played: Esteghlal have won none, drawn four, and lost four. The last meeting was a 0:0 draw on 5 December 2025 at Persepolis's ground. Before that, Persepolis won 2:1 on 27 February 2025 and 1:0 on 25 September 2024 at Esteghlal. Persepolis have dominated the record, but Esteghlal have not lost at home to them in the league since the 2024-25 season.

A tight contest is expected. A 30% chance of a draw, 41% that both teams score, and 34% for three or more goals. The three most likely scorelines are 1:0, 1:1, and 0:0, each around 13-14%. Esteghlal FC's defensive record—just one goal conceded in five matches—gives them the edge in a fixture where Persepolis have struggled to find consistency away from home.

Persepolis could disrupt this if they replicate their away form from the 2024-25 season, when they took points from Esteghlal FC on the road. A draw would suit the visitors, who have not lost at home to Esteghlal in the league since September 2024 but have struggled to win away. If the match opens with Persepolis scoring early, they could control the tempo and force Esteghlal to chase. The hosts concede 60% of their goals after the 76th minute, a window where Persepolis have scored 17% of theirs. That is the main threat.