ELJ
Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
Prediction for Plzeň U20 — Karlovy Vary U20
50%
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Fiorentina vs Frosinone: match prediction on 29 August 2026
Fiorentina
Frosinone
Prediction for
Win: Fiorentina
53%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
58%
1
24%
X
18%
2
Average bookmaker line (46)
1.63
1
4.03
X
5.18
2
Odds range
1.57 — 1.70
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 16:56- Фиорентина — 20. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
- Фрозиноне — 15. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
- Фиорентина, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Фрозиноне, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Фиорентина — 1, 1 draws, Фрозиноне — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Fiorentina
LLWWD
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Frosinone
WDWDW
3 wins · 2 draws
Head to head 2
1Fiorentina
1Draw
0Frosinone
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
46
bookmakers counted
1.63
Average bookmaker line
1.57 — 1.70
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 16:56I'm backing Fiorentina to win at 1.63. Both sides lost their opening Serie A fixtures, but Fiorentina's home record against this opponent gives them a structural edge.
Opening Day Defeats
Fiorentina fell 0:4 away to AS Roma on 24 August, while Frosinone lost 0:1 at home to Juventus the previous day. Two losses, zero points, and both teams sit without a win in the league. Fiorentina's defeat was heavier and came away from home, which matters less in this fixture since they're playing at their traditional ground. Frosinone's loss was narrower but still a home failure against a top-side.
Head-to-Head Pattern
They've met twice in Serie A since September 2023. Fiorentina won 5:1 at home in February 2024 and drew 1:1 away in September 2023. One win, one draw, no victories for Frosinone. The home result was decisive and suggests Fiorentina know how to exploit this matchup when playing on their own turf.
Form and Goal Timing
Over their last five matches, both sides have identical records: one win, two draws, two losses, five points each. Fiorentina scored 5 and conceded 11; Frosinone scored 8 and conceded 7. Fiorentina's goal distribution shows 24% in the 46-60 minute window and 21% from 76-90, meaning they're dangerous late in games. Frosinone's attacking profile is different — 28% of their goals come between 61-75 minutes, and they've scored 8 in five matches compared to Fiorentina's 5.
Model and Market
The model expects Fiorentina to score 1.6 goals and Frosinone 1.0. The most likely scores are 1:0 (12%), 1:1 (12%), and 2:0 (10%). A draw carries 25% probability, both teams scoring 49%.
When This Breaks
This prediction stops working if Fiorentina's defence replicates the 0:4 collapse against Roma. They conceded 11 goals in five matches and 4 in their opening league game alone. If Frosinone capitalises on that vulnerability and scores first, the match shifts toward the 1:1 outcome the model lists at equal probability to Fiorentina's narrowest win. A goal inside the first 15 minutes for either side would change the dynamic — Fiorentina concede 13% of their goals in that window, Frosinone 12%.
I'm confident at 65% given the head-to-head history and home advantage, but Fiorentina's recent defensive frailty means this isn't a lock. The model's 1:1 draw at 12% probability is the main alternative, and if Frosinone finds an early goal, that becomes the more likely finish.