Flamengo Fbc Women vs Yanapuma Women: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Flamengo Fbc Women to beat Yanapuma Women. The model's expected goals—2.4 for Flamengo against 1.2 for Yanapuma—point to a home advantage that recent form masks. Flamengo have scored just three goals in five matches, but that output comes against stronger opposition; Yanapuma's single win in the same period came against Defensores Women, a side that lost 3:2 away.

The head-to-head record shows Yanapuma won 1:0 on the road in May, but that result came when both teams were in different phases of the season. Flamengo's recent losses have been heavy—0:5 away to Melgar, 0:2 at home to Alianza Lima—but they also drew 2:2 away to Carlos Mannucci, showing they can compete when not completely shut down. Yanapuma's form is equally shaky; they lost 0:6 away to Sporting Cristal and 1:4 at home to Melgar.

Flamengo's attacking metrics tell a different story than their results. They average 2.67 shots on target per match compared to Yanapuma's 1.5, and their possession sits at 48% versus 34%. The model's 2.4 expected goals for Flamengo reflects this volume, even if conversion has been poor lately.

The probable scores support a home win. 2:1 at 9% and 2:0 at 8% are the top two outcomes, while 1:1 sits at 8% for a draw. With only an 18% probability for a stalemate and 69% for three or more goals, the match is unlikely to be tight. Flamengo's expected goals total suggests they will find the net, and Yanapuma's 1.2 expected goals means they might not score enough to overturn the home advantage.

Yanapuma's position at fifth place with 16 points gives them marginally better motivation, but five points separate them from Flamengo in seventh. Both sides are in poor form, but Flamengo's underlying numbers—shots on target, possession, expected goals—suggest the results don't reflect their actual performance level.

This conclusion stops working if Yanapuma score first and park the bus. Their recent record shows they can defend poorly, but against a Flamengo side that has struggled to score, a defensive approach might be enough. A 0:0 or 1:0 Yanapuma result would flip the prediction entirely, especially given their 1:0 away win in the previous meeting.