Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Beer Sheva win — the model puts 54% on that outcome, and the numbers behind it make sense. The visitors have won four of their last five games, scoring 7 and conceding 5, while Ramat Gan have lost their opening league match and gone 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in their last five outings. The xG gap is clear: 2.2 to 1.5. That is not a narrow margin.

Ramat Gan's defensive record is the weak point. They have conceded 34 goals in 10 matches, and 38% of those came in the final 15 minutes. Beer Sheva are dangerous late — 39% of their conceded goals also came in that window, which suggests they do not shy away from pressing when games are tight. The visitors have scored 29 in their last 10, an average of 2.9 per game.

Both sides have had red cards recently. Ramat Gan's João Paulo Marques Gonçalves and M. Adams have been sent off in the last three weeks, while Beer Sheva's Djibril Diop and Eliel Peretz have also seen red cards. If Ramat Gan lose concentration after a goal, the visitors could capitalise quickly.

The most likely scores are 1:2 (9%), 1:1 (8%), and 2:2 (7%). The 1:2 result is the highest single outcome, and it aligns with the visitors' recent form, averaging 2 goals per game, but they have also conceded in each one. Both teams to score sits at 68%.

If Beer Sheva drop off after their Toto Cup defeat to Hapoel Haifa — a 0:4 loss away — and play conservatively, the home side could rescue a point. Ramat Gan have shown they can score at home, drawing 3:3 with Beitar Jerusalem and 2:2 with Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem. A draw would suit them, but the data points elsewhere. The visitors need to win to build momentum early in the season, and their last five results suggest they are capable of doing so.