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Porto
ABC Braga
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72%
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Hebar 1918 vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo: match prediction on 14 September 2026
Hebar 1918
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Prediction for
Win: Hebar 1918
48%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
48%
1
24%
X
28%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 15:53- Хебар 1918 — 15. place, 8 points after 8 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses)
- Этар Велико-Тырново — 4. place, 14 points after 8 games (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses)
- Хебар 1918, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Этар Велико-Тырново, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, Хебар 1918 — 5, Этар Велико-Тырново — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Hebar 1918
WWDDL
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
DLDLW
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head to head 7
6Hebar 1918
1Draw
0Etar Veliko Tarnovo
- 10 MayEtar Veliko Tarnovo — Hebar 19180:1
- 8 Nov 2025Hebar 1918 — Etar Veliko Tarnovo2:0
- 25 May 2024Hebar 1918 — Etar Veliko Tarnovo3:1
- 6 Apr 2024Hebar 1918 — Etar Veliko Tarnovo3:0
- 8 Oct 2023Etar Veliko Tarnovo — Hebar 19182:5
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 15:53Hebar 1918 to win. The hosts have dominated this fixture for years, winning all five of their most recent meetings, and the model expects them to score more goals than Etar Veliko Tarnovo despite the visitors sitting four points above them in the table. Confidence sits at 48%.
The form gap is narrower than the table suggests
Hebar 1918 have taken eight points from their last five matches, with two wins and two draws. Etar Veliko Tarnovo have managed only five points across the same span, taking one victory and two draws. The visitors sit fourth with 14 points after eight games, while Hebar occupy 15th place with 8 points, but the recent trajectory places them closer than the standings imply.
A long head-to-head run
Hebar 1918 have not lost to Etar Veliko Tarnovo in five meetings. Their most recent encounter ended 1:0 at Etar's ground in May, and before that they won 2:0 at home in November 2025. The pattern stretches back through the First League and Second League, with Hebar claiming victories by 3:1, 3:0 and 5:2 as well. That record carries weight regardless of where each side currently stands.
The model sees goals in the middle periods
Hebar 1918 score 32% of their goals between the 46th and 60th minute and concede 31% between the 61st and 75th. Etar Veliko Tarnovo have a different profile, with 30% of goals conceded in the 31st to 45th minute and only 10% in the 61st to 75th. The model expects Hebar 1918 to score 1.7 goals and Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1.2. The most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 11%, followed by 2:1 and 1:0 both at 9%. The draw probability sits at 24% and both teams to score at 58%.
A draw would suit the visitors
The conclusion stops holding if Etar Veliko Tarnovo take a point. They have struggled away from home recently, losing 1:4 at Vihren and 1:2 at Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in their last two visits, but a draw would give them something to build on and remove the pressure to chase the game. Hebar 1918 have been unpredictable at home, drawing 1:1 with Fratria and Ludogorets II, but they also beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1:0. If Etar sit deep and run the clock down, the home side's tendency to concede late becomes a factor — they have lost 15% of goals allowed in the final 15 minutes of matches.