Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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IFK Mariehamn vs FF Jaro: match prediction on 31 August 2026
IFK Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Prediction for
Win: IFK Mariehamn
41%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
43%
1
26%
X
31%
2
Average bookmaker line (48)
2.15
1
3.52
X
2.97
2
Odds range
1.95 — 3.05
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 17:06- ИФК Мариэхамн — 12. place, 11 points after 21 games (2 wins, 5 draws, 14 losses)
- Яро — 11. place, 15 points after 21 games (3 wins, 6 draws, 12 losses)
- ИФК Мариэхамн, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Яро, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, ИФК Мариэхамн — 1, 1 draws, Яро — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
IFK Mariehamn
LWWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
FF Jaro
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 4
1IFK Mariehamn
1Draw
2FF Jaro
- 23 MayFF Jaro — IFK Mariehamn3:0
- 28 Sep 2025FF Jaro — IFK Mariehamn2:3
- 6 Jul 2025FF Jaro — IFK Mariehamn1:1
- 5 Apr 2025IFK Mariehamn — FF Jaro0:2
Bookmaker market
48
bookmakers counted
2.15
Average bookmaker line
1.95 — 3.05
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 17:06IFK Mariehamn have turned a corner. In their last five matches they have collected seven points from two wins and a draw, including a 4:2 victory away at KuPS on 23 August and a 2:0 home win over SJK Seinäjoki on 15 August. They sit 12th with 11 points after 21 games, four behind 11th-placed FF Jaro, but the momentum has shifted. The model gives them 1.5 expected goals for this fixture, higher than the visitors' 1.3.
FF Jaro are struggling to find consistency. Their last five matches produced just one win and four defeats, yielding three points and a goal difference of 3:10. The most recent result was a 0:1 home loss to AC Oulu on 22 August, following a 3:0 defeat away at HJK Helsinki on 16 August. They have conceded 24 goals across their last 10 matches compared to 14 scored, and the model reflects that imbalance in its projections.
The head-to-head record does not favour either side decisively. Four meetings have produced two victories for FF Jaro, one for IFK Mariehamn, and one draw, but before that IFK Mariehamn won 3:2 away at FF Jaro on 28 September 2025. The pattern suggests matches between these sides tend to produce goals rather than one-sided affairs.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 12%, followed by 2:1 and 1:0 both at 9%. A 25% probability for a draw and 58% for both teams to score toward an open contest. IFK Mariehamn have scored 18 goals in their last 10 matches while conceding 17, and they tend to find the net in the 31-45 minute and 46-60 minute periods, accounting for 28% of their goals each. FF Jaro have been vulnerable after the 75th minute, conceding 25% of their goals in that window.
This conclusion rests on IFK Mariehamn maintaining their improved form and FF Jaro continuing their current run of results. A draw would suit the visitors if they can manage the clock, and their recent tendency to concede late could work against them if the match remains tight.
The prediction stops holding if FF Jaro find a way to break their recent pattern of defeats. Their last five matches included one win — a 2:1 home victory over SJK Seinäjoki on 24 July — showing they can compete when conditions align.