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Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Indonesia vs Malaysia: match prediction on 28 September 2026
Indonesia
Malaysia
Prediction for
Win: Indonesia
46%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
46%
1
32%
X
22%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 26 Sep, 12:55- Индонезия — 2. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- Малайзия — 1. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- Индонезия, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Малайзия, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Indonesia
WLDWD
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Malaysia
WLLWD
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 1
1Indonesia
0Draw
0Malaysia
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 26 Sep, 12:55Indonesia win, 46% confidence. Expected goals of 1.3 for the hosts against 0.8 for Malaysia point in that direction, and Indonesia's record of three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five matches shows more consistency than Malaysia's two victories and three defeats over the same period.
Indonesia arrive with momentum. Their last outing was a 2:0 victory over Singapore at home on 25 September. Before that came a 1:1 draw away to Singapore on 7 August, followed by a 0:3 defeat at home to Vietnam on 3 August. The hosts scored 11 goals and conceded five across those five games, accumulating 10 points. They have been most dangerous in the opening 15 minutes, claiming 31% of their goals in that window, though they have also let in 40% of their concessions in the same period.
Malaysia sit top of the table after their own opening match, a 3:0 away win against Bangladesh on 25 September. Their previous five matches tell a different story: two wins and three losses, six points, four goals scored and six conceded. They have struggled to find rhythm, losing twice to Vietnam in August and falling 2:0 away to Thailand on 1 August. Malaysia's attacking output peaks between 46 and 60 minutes, where they have scored 40% of their ten goals, but they have also conceded 33% of their nine goals in that same interval.
The head-to-head record offers only one fixture: 19 December 2021, when Malaysia hosted Indonesia in the AFF Championship and lost 1:4. Indonesia's statistical profile shows more control, with 60% possession and 5.0 shots on target per match compared to Malaysia's 55% and 4.43. The model calculates a 32% probability of a draw and 43% that both sides score. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 14%, 1:0 at 14% and 0:0 at 13%.
Malaysia can overturn the prediction by exploiting Indonesia's vulnerability in the opening 15 minutes, where the hosts have conceded 40% of their goals. Alternatively, if Indonesia fail to convert their expected goals of 1.3 into actual chances, the prediction weakens.