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Porto
ABC Braga
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72%
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Inter Turku vs Vaasan Palloseura: match prediction on 14 September 2026
Inter Turku
Vaasan Palloseura
Prediction for
Win: Inter Turku
39%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
39%
1
28%
X
33%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 16:13- Интер Турку — 2. place, 42 points after 22 games (11 wins, 9 draws, 2 losses)
- Вааса — 6. place, 33 points after 22 games (9 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses)
- Интер Турку, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Вааса, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 11 games, Интер Турку — 5, 2 draws, Вааса — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Inter Turku
DLWWL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Vaasan Palloseura
WLWLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 13
6Inter Turku
3Draw
4Vaasan Palloseura
- 2 AugVaasan Palloseura — Inter Turku0:1
- 30 JunVaasan Palloseura — Inter Turku2:3
- 4 AprInter Turku — Vaasan Palloseura0:0
- 31 Aug 2025Inter Turku — Vaasan Palloseura2:1
- 19 Apr 2025Vaasan Palloseura — Inter Turku0:2
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 16:13Inter Turku to win. They have only two defeats all season.
Inter Turku occupy second place with 42 points from 22 matches, nine ahead of Vaasan Palloseura in sixth. That gap matters for motivation. Inter Turku have only two defeats all season, and they will want to close the distance on the leaders. Vaasan's record of nine wins, six draws and seven losses shows inconsistency — they win games but also drop points against weaker opposition.
Recent form tells a different story at first glance. Vaasan have taken nine points from their last five games, winning three and losing two. Inter Turku managed seven points from the same period, with two wins, one draw and two defeats. The quality of opposition matters more than the raw points tally.
The head-to-head record favours Inter Turku. In 11 meetings over recent years they have won five times, Vaasan four, with two draws. More importantly, Inter Turku have won both of this season's fixtures at Vaasan — 0:1 in August and 2:3 in June. At home, the pattern is less clear. They drew 0:0 in April and won 2:1 last August. The home advantage should tilt this one, particularly given Vaasan's tendency to concede late. They have lost 21% of goals against them in the final 15 minutes of matches.
Inter Turku's attacking threat comes most frequently between the 61st and 75th minute, where they score 23% of their goals. Vaasan are dangerous in the final 15, accounting for 33% of their own goals in that period. Inter Turku are projected to score 1.2 goals, Vaasan 1.1. The most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 13%, followed by 1:0 to Inter Turku at 12% and 0:1 to Vaasan at 11%. Both teams to score sits at 47%, just under even money. The over 3.5 goals line is 41%. These figures suggest a low-scoring affair decided by margins.
If Vaasan take the lead before the 20th minute, Inter Turku's tendency to concede heavily in the 16-30 minute window (23% of goals against them) becomes a serious problem. They tend to start matches strongly — 17% of their goals come in the opening 15 minutes. A draw also suits Vaasan's approach. They have shown they can absorb pressure and counter effectively, particularly when playing away. If they sit deep and protect a result, the match could easily drift towards a stalemate rather than a home victory.